• The United Nations released the World Population Prospects 2024 report on July 11.
• The global population reached nearly 8.2 billion by mid-2024.
• The report said the world’s population is expected to continue growing over the coming 50-60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024.
• After peaking, the global population is projected to start declining gradually, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century.
• India’s population is projected to peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion and then decline by 12 per cent.
• India, which surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation last year, will continue to hold that position through 2100.
• The 28th edition of World Population Prospects (WPP) published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) provides the latest demographic data for 237 countries from 1950 to 2024 and projections up to the year 2100. The WPP is crucial to monitor the Sustainable Development Goals, with about a quarter of the indicators relying on its data.
• According to the report, India’s population in 2024 is projected at 1.45 billion and this will peak to 1.69 billion in 2054. After this, India’s population is projected to decline to 1.5 billion by the end of the century in 2100, but the country will still remain the most populous nation on Earth.
Other key points of the report:
• The world’s overall fertility rates are dropping, with women having one child fewer on average than they did around 1990.
• In more than half of all countries and areas, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1 — the level required for a population to maintain a constant size.
• Meanwhile, nearly a fifth of all countries and areas, including China, Italy, South Korea and Spain, now have “ultra-low fertility”, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.
• In 2024, 4.7 million babies, or about 3.5 per cent of the total worldwide, were born to mothers under the age of 18. Of these, some 340,000 were born to children under 15, with serious consequences for the health and well-being of both the young mothers and their children.
• As of 2024, population size has peaked in 63 countries and areas, including China, Germany, Japan and Russia, and the total population of this group is projected to decline by 14 per cent over the next 30 years.
• The average age of the population of the world is also increasing.
• By the late 2070s, the number of persons aged 65 years or older is projected to surpass the number of persons under 18. This is in part due to the overall increase in life expectancy and decrease in mortality rates over the past three decades. By the late 2050s, more than half of all global deaths will occur at age 80 or higher, a substantial increase from 17 per cent in 1995.
• Globally, life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995.
• Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.4 years globally in 2054.
• While the slow growth or decline of populations is occurring mainly in high-income countries, rapid population growth will occur in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Specifically, Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, and Somalia, very rapid growth is projected, with their total population doubling between 2024 and 2054.
• This population growth will increase demand for resources, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and, combined with poorly managed urbanisation and rising living standards, it will worsen environmental impacts. Climate change, a major challenge, affects these countries the most, where many rely on agriculture, and food insecurity is prevalent.
World Population Day
• World Population Day, which seeks to focus attention on the urgency and importance of population issues, was established by the then-Governing Council of the United Nations Development Programme in 1989, an outgrowth of the interest generated by the Day of Five Billion, which was observed on July 11, 1987.
• The United Nations General Assembly decided to continue observing World Population Day to enhance awareness of population issues, including their relations to the environment and development.
• The Day was first marked on July 11, 1990.
