Palakkad: The undercurrents and internal rifts in the three major parties are so strong that numbers are likely to lie in the Palakkad Assembly segment, where a high-stakes contest is unfolding among three low-profile candidates.

Congress has fielded its Youth Congress state president Rahul BR, known as Rahul Mamkootathil (34), hoping to ride on the popularity of Shafi Parambil, the incumbent who vacated the seat to become an MP from Vadakara.

The CPM -- struggling to find its feet and a face in Palakkad after successive defeats -- has fielded Sarin P, the Congress turncoat heading the party's digital media cell in Kerala, till the day before. Sarin, a former Indian Audit and Accounts Service (IAAS) officer, is contesting as a Left-backed Independent candidate. Although the CPM last fielded an independent candidate in Palakkad 42 years ago in 1982, it portrays Sarin's candidacy as a coup.

BJP has fielded its election warhorse and party state General Secretary C Krishnakumar. He is a four-time councillor and deputy chairman of Palakkad municipality, where the RSS-BJP is an entrenched organisation.

Krishnakumar twice contested in the Malampuzha Assembly constituency, the first time against VS Achuthanandan in 2016. The veteran Marxist leader won by a handsome margin of 27,142 votes, but the LDF's vote share slumped by 11 percentage points. Congress's vote share also plummeted by 18 percentage points.

But BJP debuted in the constituency with C Krishnakumar and straightaway netted 30% vote share. In 2021, when he contested in Malampuzha again, the BJP's vote share increased by another two percentage points to nearly 31 per cent. Since 2016, when BJP vote-catcher Sobha Surendran contested in the Palakkad Assembly constituency, the saffron party has been No. 2 in the Assembly segment.

In 2024, for the first time, the BJP came second in the Palakkad assembly segment in a Lok Sabha election. BJP's Krishnakumar came second, and CPM's Politburo member and former Kerala State Secretary A Vijayaragavan were relegated to the third position in the election, which was won by the incumbent VK Sreekandan.

The result was shocking for the CPM because the contest was between the UDF and the LDF, not with the BJP. After a review, the CPM's State Committee called the result a "humiliating defeat".

"There is no Left left in Palakkad," said PV Mohan, Secretary of All India Congress Committee (AICC) - the central decision-making body of the Congress - and in-charge of Kerala. "I have been camping here in Palakkad for the past three months. The contest is between the BJP and the UDF," he said.

In the 2021 Assembly election, the BJP's E Sreedharan, the renowned railway engineer credited with building the Delhi Metro, lost to Shafi Parambil by 3,859 votes, the closest defeat. The BJP is making the defeat a major tool in this election. "Last time, they (the LDF and the UDF) joined hands to defeat a man of Sreedharan's stature citing secularism. We will shut this shop of fake secularism," said BJP Kerala Vice-President Sobha Surendran.

Shafi Parambil won the election by consolidating the Muslim votes against Sreedharan, said BJP's State Treasurer and former Municipal vice-chairman E Krishnadas. "This time, we will go for reverse consolidation," he told Onmanorama, using a euphemism for polarising voters on religious lines and harvesting Hindu votes.

The Palakkad Assembly segment is made of the Palakkad Municipality, where the BJP-RSS has a strong network, and three grama panchayats - Pirayiri, Mathur and Kannadi. "Pirayiri is not demographically favourable to the BJP," said Krishnadas, using another euphemism to hint that it has a sizeable Muslim population.

Mathur and Kannadi are demographically favourable to the BJP, but the party does not have a strong network. "So the Sangh volunteers will be focusing their work on these two panchayats," he said. According to sources, RSS volunteers from other districts are also doing door-to-door campaigns in the villages. The focus is Palakkad, not Chelakkara and Wayanad, said a Sangh leader.

Krishnadas hinted that the BJP did good by not fielding the fiery leader Sobha Surendran in Palakkad. Her candidature can consolidate Muslim voters for the UDF like in 2021. C Krishnakumar is a solid candidate known to boost BJP's vote share but at the same time a low-profile candidate - a perfect dark horse. "That's the strategy," said Krishnadas.

Though all three parties are facing resistance to their selection of candidates, the BJP has managed its dissent the best. Initially, Sobha Surendran's name was mooted by her supporters in Palakkad. Her poster was, however, set on fire, allegedly by Krishnakumar's supporters. According to sources, the party has mollified her with a plum post and she's thrown her weight behind Krishnakumar,

The bickering in the CPM too has been silenced, with the party's district secretary NN Krishnadas bringing back and publicly parading area committee member Abdul Shukoor who announced his intention to quit the party.

The Congress has, however, is still struggling to put a lid on differences among leaders. The most damaging could be a letter endorsing K Muraleedharan as the "suitable candidate" and signed by five senior leaders including District Congress President A Thankappan and Palakkad's MP Sreekandan.

The letter was reportedly written a day after the Congress officially declared Mamkootathil as the candidate. Unhappy with Mamkootathil, another Congress leader filed his nomination papers but decided to withdraw them only to support the LDF's candidate Sarin. "The CPM is fighting to get back to the second position. If the Congress's internal rifts are not addressed now, the party will be handing over an easy win to the BJP," said a KSU leader.

How are the parties poised?
The BJP gets 40 - 45 per cent of its total votes from Palakkad Municipality. Its vote share slides to 35 per cent when the votes in the three panchayats are counted, said Krishnadas.

Of the 52 wards in the municipality, the BJP controls 28 wards, the LDF, seven, and the UDF, 16 wards. The Jamaat-e-Islami's political front; the Welfare Party of India has one councillor. With the Left's belligerent stance against Jamaat-e-Islami comparing it to the RSS, its voters are likely to back the UDF. In the three panchayats, there are another 52 wards, where the BJP controls only four wards. The LDF controls 23 of the 52 wards and the UDF, 25 of the 52 wards.

In the 15-member Kannadi panchayat, the BJP does not have one member. In the 16-member Mathur panchayat, the BJP has only one member. In the 21-member Pirayiri panchayat, which Krishnadas dismissed as 'demographically not favourable', the BJP has three members. In all, the Assembly segment has 104 wards, of which the BJP has 32 (28+4), the LDF has 30 (7+23) and the UDF has 42 (17+25).

AICC member Mohan said the Congress took a leaf out of the BJP's election strategy and decided to focus on polling booths. There are 104 polling stations within the municipality limits and another 76 in the three panchayats. "I toured all the 180 booths in the constituency. The Congress has a definite edge over the BJP in the booths," he said.

In the 2021 assembly election, Congress's Shafi Parambil led in 41 of the 104 booths in the municipality. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Sreekandan increased the lead in the municipality to 52 booths, said Mohan. "Municipality is their strength and we were able to make inroads," he said.

In the rural areas, the UDF dominated Pirayiri panchayat leading in 26 of the 33 booths in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Shafi Parambi had led in 28 of the 33 booths. In Mathur, the Congress led in 10 of the 22 booths in 2021 and eight in 2024. That is, Shafi Parambil, who is spearheading Rahul Mamkootathil's campaign did better in rural areas than Sreekandan. "Together, they are a potent force," he said.

But the momentum is with the BJP. Since 2015, the BJP has increased its vote share in all six elections, be it panchayat, Assembly or the Lok Sabha. In contrast, Shafi Parambil's vote share in 2011, when he first won, was 42.41%. It marginally slid to 41.77% in 2016 and further dropped to 38% in 2021.

How caste and creed will play out
The constituency has a Muslim population of 22 per cent, and a Christian population of 3 per cent, mostly Dalit Christians. “The majority Hindu community includes around 80 castes and sub-castes,” said Mohan. Apart from the different sub-sects of Nairs, Palakkad also has people from sub-caste, such as Moothan, Guptan, Mannadiar, and Tharakan, who belong to the trading community.

Within the municipality, the Ezhava and the Moothan communities are influential and considered staunch supporters of the BJP. This time, Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP), a social organisation representing the Ezhava community, is also throwing its weight behind the BJP candidate.

Its members would also be campaigning in Palakkad, said a source. This is on top of the support from BJP ally the Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), headed by Thushar Vellappally, the son of SNDP chief Vellapplly Nateshan.

"We know the strength of the RSS. It has used polarisation as a tool in the previous elections too. But the Congress has been winning Palakkad," said Mohan, who is based in Mangaluru. Taking another leaf from the BJP, Mohan said the Congress has set up a war room in Palakkad with 22 activists drawn from the district.

"We are running a data-driven campaign at the grassroots, far from the media noise. This will be a model war room for all 14 districts to replicate in the next assembly election," he said.