IMF predicts global economic growth to fall to 2.9%, expects slowdown in India

Washington: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday said it is expecting some slowdown in the Indian economy next fiscal year and projected the growth to 6.1 percent from 6.8 percent during the current fiscal ending March 31.

The IMF on Tuesday released the January update of its World Economic Outlook, according to which the global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024.

The outlook for the global economy is growing slightly brighter as China eases its zero-COVID policies and the world shows surprising resilience in the face of high inflation, elevated interest rates and Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine.

India growth expected to slowdown

Our growth projections actually for India are unchanged from our October Outlook. We have 6.8 percent growth for this current fiscal year, which runs until March, and then we're expecting some slowdown to 6.1 percent in fiscal year 2023. And that is largely driven by external factors, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Chief Economist and Director, Research Department of the IMF told reporters here.

Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 percent in 2022 to 6.1 percent in 2023 before picking up to 6.8 percent in 2024, with resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds, said the IMF's World Economic Outlook update.

According to the report, growth in emerging and developing Asia is expected to rise in 2023 and 2024 to 5.3 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, after the deeper-than-expected slowdown in 2022 to 4.3 percent attributable to China's economy.

China's real GDP slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2022 implies a 0.2 percentage point downgrade for 2022 growth to 3.0 percent -- the first time in more than 40 years with China's growth below the global average. Growth in China is projected to rise to 5.2 percent in 2023, reflecting rapidly improving mobility, and to fall to 4.5 percent in 2024 before settling at below 4 percent over the medium term amid declining business dynamism and slow progress on structural reforms.

Overall, I want to point out that emerging market economies on the whole and developing economies seem to be already on their way up. We have a slight increase in growth for the region from 3.9 percent in 2022 to 4 percent in 2023, Gourinchas said.

India and China account for 50% world growth

Another relevant point here is that if we look at both China and India together, they account for about 50 percent of world growth in 2023. So a very significant contribution, he said.

In a blog post he wrote that India remains a bright spot. Together with China, it will account for half of global growth this year, versus just a 10th for the US and euro area combined, he added.

For advanced economies, the slowdown will be more pronounced, with a decline from 2.7 percent last year to 1.2 percent and 1.4 percent this year and next. Nine out of 10 advanced economies will likely decelerate, Gourinchas said.

The US' growth will slow to 1.4 percent in 2023 as Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes work their way through the economy. Euro area conditions are more challenging despite signs of resilience to the energy crisis, a mild winter, and generous fiscal support, he said.

With the European Central Bank tightening monetary policy, and a negative terms-of-trade shock due to the increase in the price of its imported energy we expect growth to bottom out at 0.7 percent this year, Gourinchas wrote.

Inflation expected to ease

That's the view of the International Monetary Fund, which now expects the world economy to grow 2.9 per cent this year. That forecast is better than the 2.7 per cent expansion for 2023 that the IMF predicted in October, though down from the estimated 3.4 per cent growth in 2022.

The IMF, a 190-country lending organisation, foresees inflation easing this year, a result of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks. Those rate hikes are expected to slow the consumer demand that has driven prices higher. Globally, the IMF expects consumer inflation to decelerate from 8.8 per cent last year to 6.6 per cent in 2023 and 4.3 per cent in 2024.

A big factor in the upgrade to global growth was China's decision late last year to lift anti-virus controls that had kept millions of people at home. The IMF said China's recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery.''

The IMF now expects China's economy the world's second-biggest, after the United States to grow 5.2 per cent this year, up from its October forecast of 4.4 per cent.

Beijing's economy eked out growth of just 3 per cent in 2022 the first year in more than 40, the IMF noted, that China has expanded more slowly than the world as a whole. But the end of virus restrictions is expected to revive economic activity in 2023.

The IMF's 2023 growth outlook improved for the United States (forecast to grow 1.4 per cent) as well as for the 19 countries that share the euro currency (0.7 per cent). Europe, though suffering from energy shortages and higher prices resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, proved more resilient than expected,'' the IMF said. The European economy benefited from a warmer-than-expected winter, which held down demand for natural gas.

Russia's economy, hit by sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine, has proved sturdier than expected, too: The IMF's forecast foresees Russia registering 0.3 per cent growth this year. That would mark an improvement from a contraction of 2.2 per cent in 2022. And it's well above the 2.3 per cent contraction for 2023 that the IMF had forecast for Russia in October.

The United Kingdom is a striking exception to the IMF's brighter outlook for 2023. It has forecast that the British economy will shrink 0.6% in 2023; in October, the IMF had expected growth of 0.3 per cent. Higher interest rates and tighter government budgets are squeezing the British economy.

These figures confirm we are not immune to the pressures hitting nearly all advanced economies,'' Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said in response to the IMF forecast. Short-term challenges should not obscure our long-term prospects the UK outperformed many forecasts last year, and if we stick to our plan to halve inflation, the UK is still predicted to grow faster than Germany and Japan over the coming years.

The IMF noted that the world economy still faces serous risks. They include the possibility that Russia's war against Ukraine war will escalate, that China will suffer a sharp increase in COVID cases and that high interest rates will cause a financial crisis in debt-laden countries.

The global outlook has been shrouded in uncertainty since the coronavirus pandemic struck in early 2020. Forecasters have been repeatedly confounded by events: A severe if brief recession in early 2020; an expectedly strong recovery triggered by vast government stimulus aid; then a surge in inflation, worsened when Russia's invasion of Ukraine nearly a year ago disrupted world trade in energy and food.

Three weeks ago, the IMF's sister agency, the World Bank, issued a more downbeat outlook for the global economy. The World Bank slashed its forecast for international growth this year by nearly half to 1.7 per cent and warned that the global economy would come perilously close'' to recession.