Kochi: If mere numbers can predict the political mood of a state, it’s a clear fifty-fifty for the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala. The ruling LDF has won 15 out of 30 wards in the latest round of local body bypolls, while the opposition Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) secured 12. If the two independents backed by the LDF are added to its kitty, the Left front’s tally goes up to 17. The remaining one went to the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), the political arm of the banned Popular Front of India (PFI), while the BJP did not win any. The 30 wards which went to bypolls are spread in 13 of the 14 districts of the state.

The results, if extrapolated to the state scenario, might signal that the LDF is in a better position than its rivals and even has a 50-50, or better, chance of repeating its 2021 win in the assembly polls due next year. And retaining the upper hand in the state-wide local body polls to be held later this year. But then, it’s an everyone’s guess that politics doesn’t work that way. It would be too naive to look at the local body bypolls in just 30 wards as an indicator of a state-wide trend for the wins and losses in the micro units of democracy are often determined by local issues and personal interests than party or ideological preferences. Also, 30 is nothing compared to the 15,962 wards in the state.

Still, political parties tend to interpret the numbers in their favour no matter how small they are. Both the LDF and UDF have done the same, claiming the results showed the wind is blowing their way. The CPM state secretariat in a statement claimed that the LDF won in 17 wards while the UDF won in 12.

The CPM claimed that the LDF victories were a show of people’s support for the Left front and its social welfare measures. It termed the results the people's verdict "against the opposition's anti-development stand and links to communal forces". On BJP drawing a blank, the CPM said it is a verdict against the BJP-ruled Centre for its inimical stand towards Kerala and the neglect of the Wayanad landslide disaster victims.

The UDF, meanwhile, claimed victory saying its seats increased to 12 from 10, while the LDF lost three. Leader of Opposition in the state assembly V D Satheesan claimed that the results showed a strong anti-incumbency sentiment.

Satheesan said the UDF has continued the trend of increasing its seats in all the local body bypolls held in the state. Of the 30 wards, 24 are gram panchayat wards and three belong to municipalities where often a little over 1,000 voters decide the outcome that need not reflect a political trend.

The CPM won two such seats in Kasaragod unopposed – a clear indication of the party’s one-upmanship in the region. The result in Chakkittamala ward of Karulayi panachayat could be a reflection of the changing political atmosphere in Nilambur assembly constituency in Malappuram district. The IUML, a key partner of the Congress, retained the seat by 397 votes. Its victor margin was 68 votes in the previous poll. Nilambur became a political hotbed in the past few months after LDF-backed independent MLA P V Anvar resigned from the post after severing all ties with the CPM. The two seats wrested by the UDF from LDF are in Ayiroor panchayat of Pathanamthitta district Thirunavaya panchayat in Malappuram.

In Thadiyoor ward of Ayiroor panchayat, Congress candidate won by 106 votes against CPM. It was the CPM in 2020 by 103 votes. In Edakkulam ward of Thirunavaya, Congress won by 260 votes against SDPI.

Results from the two block panchayat wards and one corporation among the 30 could indicate some political trends for they have a larger electorate. In Kollam, the CPM and Congress have retained one seat each in Kottarakkara and Anchal block panchayats respectively.

Sreevaraham ward of Thiruvananthapuram Corporation was retained by the CPI though by a meagre margin of 12 votes against the BJP. The CPI’s victory margin last time was 202 votes there.

Pulippara ward of Pangode panchayat in Thiruvananthapuram threw a surprise with SDPI wresting the seat from Congress. While Congress had defeated SDPI by 125 votes in 2020, this time CPM came second pushing Congress to third. The SDPI candidate won by 226 votes.

While the mixed results keep Kerala guessing, the key takeaway is that all the three fronts have to up their game on the ground in the months ahead in the run-up to the state-wide polls.