Palakkad: On the final day of public campaigning for the Palakkad byelection, BJP candidate C Krishnakumar and his wife, Palakkad Municipal Councillor Minimol V S, visited the Moothan Service Society office at Muthonthara, the RSS hub in Palakkad. The couple aimed to reconcile with the 50,000-strong trading community, upset after Priya Ajayan was ousted as municipal chairperson last December to pave the way for Minimol to take charge of the municipal council.

However, the RSS scuttled the couple's plan and made Pramila Sasidharan the new chairperson. But the episode left the community -- the backbone of the RSS in Palakkad -- bitter.

Krishnakumar wanted to patch up with the Moothan community to execute the BJP's grand plan to consolidate Hindu votes in Palakkad -- the only way it sees to dislodge the Congress from the constituency.

While Congress's three-time Palakkad MLA Shafi Parambil is widely respected for his impeccable secular credentials, the BJP has been subtly using his Muslim identity to consolidate Hindu votes in its favour.

The BJP seemed poised for a historic win after narrowly losing by 3,850 votes in 2021. However, last-minute internal rifts and the fresh appeal of Rahul Mamkootathil derailed its plans to consolidate Hindu votes -- even in the municipality, where the RSS-BJP is entrenched and believed to be unshakable. "We never imagined we could lead in Palakkad municipality, but even that happened," said Congress Palakkad district committee member and data cruncher Balan S N.

Mamkootathil trounced the BJP's old warhorse Krishnakumar by 18,840 votes -- the highest margin in the Palakkad assembly segment. Mamkootathil garnered 58,389 votes, increasing the UDF's vote share by 6.21 percentage points to 44.27 per cent.

LDF's independent candidate, P Sarin, who rebelled out of the Congress just before the election, also marginally increased the Left's vote share by 1.64 percentage points to 27 per cent with 37,293 votes.

But the headline is the BJP's tailspin, piloted by Krishnakumar. The party got only 28.63 per cent vote share, a drop of 6.71 percentage points in Palakkad. The electoral decline is the manifestation of a deeper problem in the BJP. Even in Krishnakumar's own Ayyapuram East municipal ward, his vote share dropped by 4.22 percentage points to 59.5 per cent.

Urban voters ditch BJP
Palakkad’s electorate comprises an even blend of rural and urban voters but BJP's fortunes hinge on the urban voters, and they ditched the BJP for the first time in nine years. In rural areas such as Pirayiri, Mathur and Kannadi grama panchayats -- which make up the rest of the assembly segment -- the BJP fared worse.

In 2021, BJP's E Sreedharan had a lead of 6,238 votes against Shafi after the votes in the town were counted.

But in the 2024 by-election, Mamkootathil sprung a surprise by not just erasing BJP's lead by going past the saffron party by another 4,590 votes in the municipality. Mamkootathil increased the vote share in the town by four percentage points to 41.11 per cent.

In contrast, the BJP's vote share slid to 35.17 per cent from 44.16 per cent. The BJP lost the election then itself as it has little presence outside the municipality and the UDF is mighty strong in grama panchayats such as Pirayiri.

In Pirayiri panchayat, where the BJP did not focus saying it was "demographically not favourable", a euphemism for the Muslim population, the UDF increased its vote share by 19 percentage points to 68 per cent. BJP's vote share dropped by four percentage points to 20.48 per cent.

In Mathur grama panchayat, the Congress marginally increased its vote share to 38.52 per cent while the BJP's vote share slid by 5 per cent to 18.23 per cent.

In Kannadi, the UDF's vote increased by two percentage points to 37 per cent. BJP's vote share slumped by 6.52 percentage points to 21.24 per cent.

BJP and Shafi's Muslim identity
In the run-up to the byelection, BJP state treasurer and Palakkad municipal vice-chairperson E Krishnadas and candidate Krishnakumar said they were working towards consolidating Hindu votes. Shafi was the perfect vehicle for the party.

In 2011, when Shafi first became MLA in Palakkad, BJP's vote share was under 20 per cent. In 2016, when Shafi was reelected, the BJP increased its vote share by 10 percentage points to 29 per cent. In 2021, Metroman Sreedharan increased it up another six percentage points to 35.34 per cent to bring it almost on par with the UDF.

In this stride, the LDF lost its vote share from 36 per cent to 25.64 per cent.

But in 2024, Mamkootathil took the sting out of BJP's 'Hindu consolidation' strategy. Places such as Ramanathapuram, Sekaripuram, Kalpathy and Tamil Colony, which routinely elect BJP councillors, voted for the Congress this time, said Balan.

Even Munambam did not work, said BJP's Krishnadas, referring to the social crisis triggered by the Wakf Board by claiming rights over 404 acres of land at the coastal village in Kochi.

But BJP leaders said it was not just Mamkootathil who punctured the party's Hindu consolidation plan. The BJP made a mistake in candidate selection, insiders said. Krishnakumar insisted on contesting, claiming Palakkad as his home constituency. "But people are tired of seeing his face," said a senior leader. "Voter fatigue has set in, as he has contested six elections in nine years, from municipal to Lok Sabha polls. I believe an A-list candidate like Sobha Surendran or K Surendran could have delivered a different outcome."

Another leader said that Krishnakumar's wife's political ambition has caused a lot of bitterness among the party workers. "Our voters either stayed away from the election or voted for rival candidates," he said.