Kochi: A last-minute shuffle in the Congress candidate list which pushed K Muraleedharan to contest from Thrissur has made the upcoming Lok Sabha elections more intriguing. Muraleedharan’s yet another ‘mass entry’, as Congress supporters call it, has brought some drama to the political stage which looked dull and dry until the other day. With the Vadakara MP’s entry, Thrissur has become the core battlefield of 2024 in the southern state. The central Kerala constituency will now witness a real triangular fight with Muraleedharan taking on BJP’s Suresh Gopi and Left front’s V S Sunil Kumar.

Historically, Muraleedharan's electoral tryst with Thrissur has not been good, though. In 1998, he lost from the Lok Sabha constituency to CPI's V V Raghavan. When he contested from the neighbouring Wadakkanchey assembly constituency in the 2004 bypoll also victory remained elusive for him. Moreover, he had built a strong base in Vadakara after his decisive win against CPM strongman P Jayarajan in 2019.

Despite these acts, the Congress chose to field him in Thrissur pinning its hopes on Muraleedharan's renewed image as a fighter in crisis. In the 2021 assembly polls, he was deployed to fight from Nemom, the constituency which helped the BJP open its account in Kerala assembly in 2016. Though Muraleedharan could not win back the seat for Congress, his candidature, in a constituency where Congress' organisational setup was so weak, helped the party consolidate its votes which scuttled BJP's chances of re-election. In the triangular contest, victory stood with CPM's V Sivankutty. If Nemom repeats, CPI's Sunilkumar will have the final laugh in Thrissur.

In Muraleedharan’s absence the Congress has deployed firebrand Shafi Paramabil to defend Vadakara where the CPM has fielded is strongest candidate – former Health Minister K K Shailaja. Apart from these two seats, the opposition party has retained all of its incumbent MPs in the candidate list. They include former party president Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad, Shashi Tharoor in Tiruvananthapuram and KPCC president K Sudhakaran in Kannur.

In Alappuzha, the lone seat the party lost in the 2019 elections, the Congress, as expected, has fielded AICC general secretary (organisation) K C Venugopal. Shanimol Usman had lost the seat to CPM’s A M Ariff last time.

Focus Thrissur

The Congress list, despite the party having sitting MPs in 15 seats, was delayed apparently over the confusions over three seats – Alappuzha, Wayanad and Kannur. There were doubts about Rahul seeking re-election from Wayanad where he has to take on CPI, a loyal partner of the INDIA coalition elsewhere in the country. In Kannur, Sudhakaran had expressed unwillingness to contest this time citing organisational responsibilities.

However, the party was forced to shift its focus to Thrissur at the last minute with the defection of Congress leader and Muraleedharan’s sister Padmaja Venugopal to BJP. Muraleedharan and Padmaja are children of late Congress stalwart K Karunakaran.

Thrissur is the constituency where the BJP harbours its hopes this time, riding on the popularity of Suresh Gopi. The saffron party also got a shot in the arm with Padmaja, who perceivably enjoys some clout in the constituency, coming onboard just ahead of the elections. This has made the chance of Congress dim in the constituency held by T N Prathapan whose chances were in doubt this time. In Muraleedharan, the Congress sees a fighter who can keep the party’s votes intact and cut into the uncertain electorate. His first response after the announcement of candidature also makes it clear that the Congress has taken up Thrissur as a battle of prestige. He said he will push the BJP to third position.

Congress hopes

The Congress might not be expecting to repeat its 2019 show this time – it won 15 out of the 16 seats it contested while the remaining four seats landed in its allies’ kitty. Factors like the anger of a large section of voters to the Left government over its stance on the Sabarimala temple row and the renewed vigour infused by the Rahul Gandhi’s candidature from the state had contributed heavily to the Congress-led UDF’s performance last time. This time, such factors are absent while the Congress is pinning its hopes on the perceived anti-incumbency feeling against the state government. The Left front, meanwhile, has centred its focus on projecting itself as the true warriors against BJP’s Hindutva while calling Congress as a bunch of leaders who can switch to the saffron camp anytime.

The Congress hopes that even if it loses some of the traditional Left bastions which it won last time in the wave, it can retain majority of the constituencies. It also hopes to wrest Alappuzha where Venugopal wields considerable influence. He has represented the constituency twice earlier while he also won the assembly elections from Alappuzha thrice.

In Thiruvananthapuram, the Congress is betting its hopes on Tharoor’s personal appeal for the fourth time. He takes on BJP’s Rajeev Chandrasekhar and CPI’s Pannyan Raveendran. In the neighbouring Attingal, Adoor Prakash is assigned to defend his seat and the Congress’ hopes lie on his personal clout and election management skills.

Anto Antony is facing CPM veteran Thomas Isaac and BJP’s Anil Antony in Pathanamtitta. The Congress camp’s initial assessment is that the entry of Anil, the son of Congress stalwart A K Antony who joined BJP last year, will work in favour of Anto.

In Idukki and Mavelikkara, Dean Kuriakose and Kodikkunnil Suresh are seeking re-election respectively. The elections will be a test of their performance as MPs while the larger political trends in the state are sure to reflect in the constituencies. In Ernakulam, a UDF stronghold, Hibi Eden is all confident about re-election against CPM new face K J Shine. In the neighbouring Chalakudy, Benny Behanan faces a tough contest from former CPM minister C Raveendranath.

Palakkad, Alathur and Kasaragod were the surprise wins for Congress last time and V K Sreekanadan, Ramya Haridas and Rajmohan Unnithan seem to have a tough time defending their seats, which are traditional CPM forts. The Left party has fielded its veterans A Vijayaraghavan, K Radhakrishnan and M V Balakrishnan to wrest Palakkad, Alathur and Kasaragod, respectively.

In Kozhikode, the Congress has fielded its best bet M K Raghavan who has dramatically increased his winning margin in the past three elections. While he had scraped through in 2009 by a meagre 838 votes, his victory margin increased to 16,883 in 2014 and 85,225 in 2019. He faces a challenge from CPM’s Elamaram Kareem this time. In Kannur, Sudhakaran was forced to seek re-election after the CPM fielded one of its strongmen M V Jayarajan. The archrivals’ contest makes the battle for Kannur all the dramatic.

The Thrissur conundrum has in effect come out as a blessing in disguise for Congress. With Muraleedharan being shifted to Thrissur, the party could introduce Shafi to Vadakara and thus ensure Muslim representation in its candidate list. The unexpected contest, which is Shafi’s maiden Lok Sabha race, against a strong candidate like Shailaja in her home turf poses a challenge to Shafi. The way he handles it can have a far-reaching impact on his political career itself.