New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its seasonal outlook for the hot weather season (April to June) 2025, predicting above-normal temperatures across most of India. The forecast warns of an increased number of heatwave days, particularly in central, eastern, and northwestern regions. Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over peninsular India, which suggests Kerala may receive sufficient rainfall in April.

Heatwave days ahead
IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, addressing an online press conference on Monday, stated that India typically experiences four to seven heatwave days during April to June, but this year, the number could increase by two to four days in many regions.

“From April to June, north and east India, central India, and the plains of northwest India are expected to record two to four more heatwave days than normal,” Mohapatra said.

The states expected to be most affected include Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and northern parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Some states, including eastern Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha, could experience 10 to 11 heatwave days.

The heatwave has also started earlier this year, with the first recorded instance in the Konkan and coastal Karnataka on February 27-28, compared to Odisha on April 5 last year.

El Nino to remain neutral
The report also indicates that El Niño conditions are shifting towards a neutral phase, which means they are unlikely to negatively impact the upcoming monsoon season. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to remain neutral, further supporting stable climatic conditions.

Northeast India faces flood risk
IMD predicts normal rainfall in April, ranging between 88 and 112 per cent of the long-term average of 39.2 mm. However, northeastern states could experience flooding due to changing rainfall patterns. Meanwhile, northwest, west-central, and peninsular India are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

Health risks
With rising temperatures, the central government has urged states to ensure hospitals are prepared for heatstroke cases. In 2024, India recorded 536 heatwave days—the highest in 14 years—with official data showing 41,789 suspected heatstroke cases and 143 heat-related deaths. However, experts suggest the actual toll may be underreported.

Additionally, experts warn that peak electricity demand could rise by 9-10 per cent due to climate change-induced heat stress. Last year, India’s power demand exceeded projections, crossing 250 gigawatts on May 30—6.3 per cent higher than expected.

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