Chelakkara: Without the BJP factor like in Palakkad, the Chelakkara Assembly byelection became a direct battleground to test anti-incumbency against the Left Democratic Front (LDF) government in Kerala.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan was also happy about the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) framing the byelection as a referendum on him and his government, for Chelakkara is a red bastion with well-organised election machinery. He addressed seven election rallies in Chelakkara, and his speeches focused only on the government's achievements and never digressed into communal issues he played up in Palakkad.

Yet, on the ground, the CPM ran a personality-oriented campaign, and that paid off. U R Pradeep, Chelakkara's MLA from 2016 to 2021, defeated Congress's former Alathur MP Ramya Haridas by 12,201 votes. The LDF registered an impressive win despite losing nearly 10% of the vote, a standout feature of Chelakkara.

CPM piggy-backed on the clean, gentle, and accessible image of Pradeep and contrasted it with Ramya's image of being absent from the constituency when she was Alathur's MP from 2019 to 2024. Chelakkara's five-time MLA K Radhakrishnan also appealed to the people to vote for Pradeep "if you loved me". Chelakkara could not say no to Radhakrishnan, who used to corner around 50% of the votes in every election.

Pradeep went on to register leads in all nine panchayats that make up Chelakkara constituency: Varavoor (1,858) Chelakkara (990); Desamangalam (2,237); Vallathol Nagar (2,271); Panjal (1,946); Pazhayannur (851); Kondazhy (107); Thiruvilwamala (432); and Mullurkara (183).

Of these panchayats, Pazhayannur is controlled by the UDF; in Thiruvilwamala panchayat, the CPM has five members; and the UDF and the BJP have six each. Kondazhy is with the UDF with eight of the 15 members from Congress.

During the campaign, the Congress considered Ramya Haridas as baggage after her loss to K Radhakrishnan in the Alathur Lok Sabha election in April 2024. "That was why we made Pinarayi Vijayan and his misgovernance the centre of our campaign," said a Congress leader in charge of the UDF election campaign.

However, Ramya alone could not be blamed, as the UDF — particularly the Congress — lacked both the organisational network to deliver its message effectively and the leadership to anchor its campaign in Chelakkara. "For all the infighting in Palakkad, we have Shafi Parambil and V K Sreekandan who run the campaign in Palakkad. We had no such local leaders in Chelakkara," said an All India Congress Committee leader.

Yet, from the Congress's point of view, Haridas did well by bringing down LDF's winning margin to 12,202 votes. In 2021, Congress's C C Sreekumar lost to the veteran CPM leader Radhakrishnan by 39,400 votes. MLA Mathew Kuzhalnadan, who was in Chelakkara for a month, said this reflects the anti-incumbency against the government in a constituency held by the CPM for 28 years.

The CPM's vote share fell by nearly 10 percentage points to 41.44 per cent and Ramya's vote share increased by nearly five percentage points to 33.64 per cent.

CPI's Thrissur district secretary K K Valsaraj said Radhakrishnan's election margin could not be compared with Pradeep's as the veteran leader appealed to a larger cross-section of society. In 2016, Pradeep won by a margin of 10,200 votes, he said. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Ramya reduced the lead between the UDF and the LDF to around 5,000 votes. "From there, we bounced back," said Valsaraj.

'Anvar's credibility destroyed'
LDF convenor in Thrissur district Abdul Khader K V said the LDF registered the win against the backdrop of concerted attacks from the UDF, BJP and Nilambur's influential and independent MLA P V Anvar. Anvar fielded Congress rebel Sudheer N K and promised to build 1,000 houses for needy people. Sudheer polled 3,920 votes, the highest for an independent candidate in Chelakkara. "Anvar did not run a political campaign. He ran a communal campaign and lured voters with money and promise of the houses during the election," said Abdul Khader. SDPI, which has around 2,000 votes in Chelakkara, also sided with Anvar this time, he said.

BJP's stride continues
The BJP fielded K Balakrishnan, a low-profile grassroots worker and former president of Thiruvilwamala panchayat. He cornered 21.49 per cent vote share, an increase of 5.81 percentage points compared to the 2021 election. BJP's vote share has been stuck at around 15 per cent since 2016.