The Ponnani Lok Sabha constituency in the Malappuram district is likely to remain steadfast — like it has been for the past more than four decades — with the Indian Union Muslim League in the April 26 poll to the Lower House of Parliament, according to Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey.

However, a UDF constituent, League, is likely to experience a slight decrease in votes compared to the 2019 election. The LDF, meanwhile, may increase its votes by 3.9 per cent, which still would fall short of shaking the League's base.

The survey found the difference between the LDF and League's vote share would be about 15 per cent, despite the increase. The vote shares of LDF and UDF would be 36.19 per cent and 51 per cent, respectively. The NDA with a 10.23 per cent vote share may see a 0.64 per cent decrease in its votes.

The sitting MP, ET Mohammed Basheer has shifted to Malappuram after completing a hat-trick in Ponnani. He defeated PV Anwar of the LDF by a margin of 1,93,273 votes.

The League has fielded Malappuram MP Abdussamad Samadani in Ponnani. The LDF has nominated former League leader KS Hamza to take on Samadani. Hamza's presence has made the LDF upbeat since he knows the League and its strategies. The BJP has Nivedita Subramanian as its candidate.

The Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey covered 28,000 people across all the Assembly segments in March. The survey looked at the possible results if the polling was then conducted. The Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey, "Who will win in 20 seats" is the largest in terms of sample size.