Kerala government's insistence on a COVID-19 negative certificate could derail the return plans of thousands of Malayalis stuck abroad and desperate to get back home.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on Wednesday said a negative certificate was compulsory even while conceding that there were difficulties in conducting RT-PCR (Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction) tests in many Gulf countries.

He was also aware of the exorbitant rates of COVID-19 tests in many of these countries. Also, in many Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, tests are not conducted on asymptomatic individuals. This would virtually deprive more than 95 per cent of those wanting to return of the mandatory negative certificate.

Kerala government has now found a convenient way to tide over the hurdles. It has put the ball in the Centre's court knowing fully well that it is not in a mood to play.

Pinarayi Vijayan wants cheaper and quicker testing facilities, antibody or TrueNat tests, to be created by the Centre at foreign airports or such areas that could be convenient for travellers in consultation with Indian embassies.

The Centre has not responded to Kerala's demand, and most likely it will not. The Union Minister of State for External Affairs, V Muraleedharan, has already termed as "impractical" Kerala's proposal.

What if Centre refuses to play ball

Kerala wants the negative certificate to be made compulsory from June 20. But if the Centre does not make any arrangements for testing by then, it is unclear what would happen to non-residents who had already booked seats under the Vande Bharat Mission and also in chartered flights?

Those waiting to book tickets would also be thrown into a state of uncertainty. Assuming they manage to get their tests done, will they get the results by the time their flight is scheduled to leave? In some Gulf countries, it is said results could be delayed by at least eight days.

The chief minister has wrapped this difficult decision in a seemingly unquestionable argument.

Kerala has not said it would not welcome infected returnees. What the chief minister said was he would accept them with open arms. The government's only demand is that the infected and the normal travellers should not be mixed. "This can prove dangerous as the infected can pass on the virus to the healthy among the passengers causing avoidable transmission," the chief minister said.

Why separate flights could be dangerous

Therefore, he said it would be advisable to bring the infected in separate flights. Theoretically, this is perfectly sound. Practically, it would have the effect of dumping the infected Malayalis, including the pregnant and the elderly, to the mercy of their host countries.

Till now, 82,574 Keralies have returned from abroad and 713 or 0.86 per cent of them have been found infected. At least, 25 per cent of the 713 infected would have been healthy till the moment they had boarded the plane and would have contracted the virus from infected co-passengers. This shows that the number of people infected among those wanting to return is very small.

All these 713 individuals found infected till now had arrived in 303 flights; 179 Vande Bharat Mission flights and 124 private chartered ones. Even if we assume that all the 713 boarded the aircraft with the virus, there were on an average less than three positive cases in each of these flights.

It is common aviation wisdom that no aircraft is going to take off without a minimum number of passengers. For instance, during February and March when the COVID-19 situation was spiralling out of control in Italy, the Indian Embassy in Italy could not fly out desperate Indians because there were not enough passengers to make a flight to India viable.

The same ruthless logic will apply for returnees who will test positive. Since tests will be timed according to flight schedules, those declared positive will have no choice but to wait till their numbers swelled to a financially viable number, at least 200, before they could get an aircraft to fly them out to Kerala. But by then, the wait can turn fatal for some.

Now, even if a separate flight with COVID-19 patients finally takes off, certain health concerns will have to be addressed. "You will be exposing patients, some of them highly vulnerable, to even higher virus loads when all of hem come packed together," a top health official said.

Spice Jet's example

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said even airline companies could facilitate the testing. He said Spice Jet on its own had agreed to conduct the tests. The company has already brought in returnees in over 20 flights after conducting the tests. By June 30, Spice Jet would have flown 100 flights.

What the chief minister left unsaid was, Spice Jet had not flown, and would not fly, infected individuals.

The chief minister said the antibody testing being done in the UAE airport was effective. He said airline companies should coordinate with health authorities in other Gulf countries to arrange similar facilities in respective airports.

Qatar advantage

Qatar is perhaps the only Gulf country where Kerala can have its way. The country has a mobile app, Ehteraz, which is mandatory for all who venture outside their homes. Those with green status in the app will be COVID-19 negative and only they will be allowed entry into public places like airports.

So Malayalis in Qatar need not bother about tests. They only have to show their green status in their Ehteraz app to secure a ticket to Kerala.