Column | Resilience ahead: What’s next for disaster-prone Kerala?
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“How can Malayalis sleep peacefully when devastating landslides and floods have become so frequent in Kerala during the monsoon?” asked a non-resident Keralite friend while extending Onam greetings. He was deeply concerned about the tragic fate of one of his relatives, who had lost their home due to landslides in the Chooralmala-Mundakkai region. The relative was now living in rented accommodation, uncertain of how long they would have to stay there. Similar concerns have haunted many since the great floods of 2018, especially those living in disaster-prone areas.
Unfortunately, the future holds little hope for disaster-free Onam days, as the frequency and intensity of climate catastrophes are expected to worsen. Due to the unprecedented warming of the Arabian Sea, Kerala is predicted to experience extreme rainfall events during the monsoon. The state’s vulnerability to climate-change-triggered disasters is also a result of its unplanned development and unique geography.
However, the future is not entirely uncertain. By addressing climate disasters with decisive action, Kerala can mitigate many challenges during and after catastrophes. It’s high time the state learns from the experiences of advanced countries prone to natural disasters and takes proactive steps to tackle climate change-triggered landslides and floods.
The American model
Due to its geography, the United States continues to be deeply affected by natural disasters. While coastal states like Florida, Louisiana, Texas, and North Carolina are highly vulnerable to hurricanes, states in the Midwest, such as Oklahoma and Kansas, along with others like Texas, experience the highest frequency of tornadoes. Regions nationwide adjacent to major rivers, such as the Mississippi, are prone to flooding, while states like California, Oregon, Washington, and Arizona are particularly susceptible to wildfires. The Northeast Corridor, from Washington D.C. to Boston, is often subjected to severe winter storms, including blizzards and ice storms.
Americans cope with these disasters with relatively minimal human and material loss by establishing a comprehensive system that operates at the federal and county levels. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), established in 1979 to assist people before, during, and after disasters, ensures that the United States is prepared to respond to such events.
FEMA works with “individuals and communities to build a culture of national preparedness through active community engagement, training and education, and planning”. A good example would be the various counties in the hurricane-prone state of Florida, where offices of emergency management partner with FEMA to develop a range of preparedness programs.
Last year, just months ahead of the hurricane season, Hillsborough County in Florida organised an evacuation shelter drill to ensure that emergency response systems were well in place. In the drill, residents were evacuated, and the scenario played out as if a real disaster, marked by extreme rainfall and storms, were occurring. The hands-on exercise aimed to ensure that disaster management logistics would run smoothly during the highly stressful hurricane days.
This year in Hillsborough, preparedness sessions were organised for senior citizens, with nearly 3,000 elderly participants. They were trained to stock up on medicines, water, and canned foods.
During a previous hurricane event, the County initiated 50 evacuation shelters, accommodating 8,300 people.
What should be added here is that protecting pets is also given importance when devising disaster preparedness plans. For example, in Florida, just before the six-month hurricane season from June to November, one of the state’s schools has been designated as a pet-friendly evacuation shelter, with a humane society assigned to manage it. Some counties even issue hurricane guidelines for pets.
Even though disaster preparedness systems were initiated in Kerala after the 2018 floods, including the 'Nammal Namukkayi' campaign to enhance community resilience at the local level, there is still a lack of systematic disaster preparedness, particularly in terms of pre-monsoon evacuation and shelter drills.
Lessons from Japan
Japan is located on the so-called "Ring of Fire," a belt in the Pacific Ocean where around 90 percent of the world's earthquakes and 75 percent of volcanic activity occur. This seismically active belt, where the Pacific Plate meets many adjacent tectonic plates, experiences no fewer than 1,500 small and large earthquakes each year.
For the Japanese, experiencing a minor to moderate earthquake is a normal occurrence, as both life and infrastructure are adapted to handle it. A Tokyo resident having their morning coffee is unlikely to run out in alarm when the chair trembles, thanks to the country’s earthquake-resilient systems.
Besides developing warning systems and alert mechanisms, the Japanese are succeeding in constructing buildings and transportation facilities that are equipped with rigorous earthquake-resistant design standards. Buildings in Japan are constructed with earthquake-resistant materials that bend instead of breaking under pressure and incorporate construction technologies such as vibration control, seismic isolation, pendulum systems, and levitating homes.
What is even more striking is that the Japanese have devised cost-effective, innovative solutions for 'dignified living' in relief camps, in the event that resilience fails and a catastrophe occurs. Pritzker Prize-winning architect Shigeru Ban designed an uncomplicated partition made from paper tubes and canvas curtains to divide each family in the relief camps. These simple, modular partitions in the emergency shelters ensured privacy for the evacuees of the Great Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011.
It is true that the systematic implementation of landslide and flood-resilient construction parameters in Kerala may take years and require considerable investment. However, simple and inexpensive solutions, such as creating private spaces for families in relief camps using basic partitions, can make a big difference and are a feasible option. This is especially relevant since evacuating families to nearby schools and auditoriums en masse has emerged as a disaster management strategy.
Living with disasters
Whether American or Japanese, disaster management models operate by maintaining a year-round system that activates when necessary. This proactive approach enables the development of cost-effective and sustainable solutions that are prepared in advance and ready for deployment in the event of a disaster, rather than scrambling for solutions after a crisis has occurred. With this year’s monsoon coming to an end, now is the ideal time for state and local self-governments in Kerala to begin planning and implementing comprehensive preparedness measures for the next year.
(Social anthropologist and novelist Thomas Sajan and US-trained neurologist Titto Idicula, based in Norway, write on politics, culture, economy, and medicine.)