Analysis | LS byelection: Priyanka phobia, shift in Christian preference hurt LDF in Wayanad
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Kalpetta: In the grand scheme of things, LDF candidate Sathayn Mokeri was not going to seriously dent UDF's Priyanka Gandhi's winning margin. He was destined to finish a distant second, but he was expected to secure all the votes from the Left pocket boroughs.
However, Mokeri of CPI not only bagged the lowest votes in the constituency's history but also was pushed to the third slot in 171 booths. In the Wayanad district, NDA came second in 153 polling booths. The constituency is spread across the Wayanad and Malappuram districts.
In Wayanad, three legislative constituencies, Kalpetta, Mananthavadi and Sulthan Bathery, are part of the Lok Sabha constituency. In the 23 village panchayats and three municipalities in them, UDF bagged a considerable lead against LDF. Among the 578 booths of Wayanad district, Gandhi was far ahead of her rival's majority in 561 booths, according to booth-level numbers put out by the Election Commission.
'Christian belts' leave LDF gasping
In areas with a substantial Christian population, like Pulppalli and Mullankolli, under the Sulthan Bathery legislative constituency, the NDA candidate came second ahead of the LDF candidate. But thanks to cross-voting from the Left, the UDF continued its supremacy. The NDA finished second in 16 booths of Pulppalli and in 10 booths of Mullankolli, areas known as Roman Catholic citadels.
Of the 30 booths of Poothadi panchayat, LDF was pushed to the third slot behind the NDA in 17. In the Sulthan Bathery municipality, NDA finished second in 17 booths. The NDA candidate also finished second at Cherukattoor, a polling booth with the highest Christian votes in the Mananthavadi legislative constituency.
A reality check for LDF
LDF leadership in the district has accepted the mandate and promised to take corrective steps. CPM leader CK Saseendran told Onmanorama that the LDF's lack of enthusiasm might have hurt it hard. “It is a fact that we had an underwhelming election campaign, as all had predicted Priyanka Gandhi's victory. But we never anticipated such a huge drain in votes,” he admitted.
“We cannot run away from reality, " he said, adding that the tilt in Christian votes towards the BJP 'in settler strongholds must be analysed by all seriously.'
‘Priyanka phobia’ plays a part
Some CPM leaders said the 'Priyanka phobia' prevented many from urging their supporters to vote for the party's chosen candidate. They were referring to the fear that even party sympathisers might vote for Gandhi instead of Mokeri.
A CPM leader who preferred anonymity told Onmanorama that many male CPM cadre did not ask their wives to vote, fearing that they would vote for Gandhi. “We are in such a dilemma that we were not confident at all and there was no last-minute push to get the party votes,” he pointed out. “In one booth in Poothadi panchayat, our candidate bagged 181 votes whereas the BJP bagged 182 votes, and we failed to ensure our 103 party votes,” he said.
CPM bastion Tirunelli falls
Since its inception, the vote drain has been very visible at Tirunelli panchayat, a CPM bastion. In the panchayat, where UDF has not even a single ward member, Gandhi had a lead of 241 votes.
There were allegations that the majority of CPM activists were disinterested during the election campaign due to the squabbles between CPI and CPM. Moreover, in many places, CPM workers boycotted the campaign to teach CPI a lesson after more than 50 CPM cadres, including district leaders, joined CPI recently.
Congress leader KL Poulose, Gandhi's chief counting agent, told Onmanorama that the LDF campaign had lost its zest from the beginning. “BJP had managed to keep the majority of its votes polled, whereas CPM failed to ensure that.” Apart from some increase in some Christian belts, there has been no increase in the BJP vote share, he said.