If elections are just a number game, the latest round of bypolls in Kerala has given the Congress a split verdict. It retained two -- Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency and Palakkad assembly segment -- while it failed to wrest Chelakkara from the CPM. The results by and large have gone the expected way. It still is a political victory for the Congress if nuances are measured and larger picture is considered.

Congress candidate Rahul Mamkoottathil’s victory in Palakkad surpassed even the party’s expectations when it comes to the winning margin. Rahul, on Saturday, romped home with 18,840 votes, a record in the constituency’s history. Leader of the Opposition V D Satheesan himself admitted that the figure was beyond their expectation, which was anywhere between 10,000 and 15,000.

What makes the thumping win a political feat for Congress is the nature of the constituency. Unlike elsewhere in Kerala, the Congress had a head-on fight with the BJP in Palakkad and nothing short of a win would have been extremely damaging for the Opposition party.

The Palakkad bypoll was necessitated after incumbent MLA Shafi Parambil was elected to the Parliament from the Vadakara constituency. The CPM-led LDF made it an issue during the campaign by saying the bypoll was orchestrated as part of a deal between Congress and the BJP. The argument was that by sending Shafi, who managed to scrape through in the 2021 election by a margin of less than 4,000 votes against BJP’s E Sreedharan, the Congress was paving the way for a BJP win.

Rahul’s emphatic win has punctured the CPM narrative and helped it establish itself as the political fighter against BJP in its stronghold while the CPM, which fielded Congress dissenter Dr P Sarin, had to settle for a distant third once again. The Congress has received a huge morale booster in the Palakkad show especially ahead of the local body polls due next year.

Palakkad is the only municipality ruled by the BJP in the state, and the dip in the party’s vote share in the bypoll should inspire Congress to gear up for the civic elections with renewed energy. The Palakkad bypoll was the real litmus test for the Congress leadership in the state, especially Satheesan, who played a key role in the candidate selection as well as campaign management. Unlike in Thrikkakara and Puthuppaly, the Congress did not have any sympathy wave to ride on in Palakkad, and the only thing that mattered there in the electioneering was political messaging.

A loss to BJP close on the heels of a similar fate in the Thrissur Lok Sabha segment earlier this year would have raised serious questions as to the strategies and leadership skills of Satheesan and KPCC chief K Sudhakaran. A loss would have also taken all the sheen out of Shafi’s stunning victory in Vadakara against CPM veteran K K Shailaja. The Palakkad win has saved them all from a potential rebellion, especially since Shafi and Satheesan’s push for Rahul’s candidature had caused discontent among a section of leadership.

A victory in Chelakkara, no matter how small the margin, would have increased the Congress’s confidence by leaps and bounds, though it did not happen. However, the Congress leadership has found solace in the fact that Ramya Haridas has managed to bring down the victory margin of the LDF from around 40,000 in 2021 to 12,000-odd votes in 2024.

The party leadership considers it to be a validation of their campaign that centred around the perceived anti-incumbency sentiments against the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government. The defeat, though in a Left fort like Chelakkara, leaves room for the Congress leadership to address concerns over candidate selection and organisational strength ahead of the local body polls and the assembly contest due in 2026.

A Chelakkara win, along with stunning shows in Wayanad and Palakkad, would have also pushed the Congress to the complacency mode it is infamous for. The 2-1 bypoll results hence in effect prompts Congress to remain realistic, but with adequate confidence.