Chelakkara: "Our best asset is our candidate. Everybody loves him," says Ramesh, a CPM supporter running a three-storey lodge and restaurant in the Chelakkara panchayat. His party has fielded former MLA UR Pradeep (51) in the Chelakkara Assembly by-election.

After a pause, the restaurateur burst out his worries and hope. "We hope PV Anvar's candidate gets all the anti-government votes and not Ramya," he says. Vinod, running a pharmacy in the Chelakkara marketplace for the past 40 years, also expects Pradeep to scrape past the post. "He is a good candidate but there are strong anti-government sentiments on the ground. Only Anvar has expressed it publicly. Someone should say the emperor is naked."

Over the past 28 years, Chelakkara has seen the victory of only one party—the CPM—and elected just two MLAs. Veteran Marxist leader K Radhakrishnan won five times, with Pradeep UR winning in 2016 when Radhakrishnan became the CPM's Thrissur District Secretary. Radhakrishnan was winning mostly on his own steam and despite the party, says Vinod, Radhakrishnan's classmate in school.

"People irrespective of party affiliations have direct access to him and he too does what he can without considering their personal politics. We don't have to go through the branch committee to meet Radhakrishnan," says Vinod. But Radhakrishnan's popularity with the masses has always worried the party, he says. " But he is on the forefront to ensure Pradeep's victory," said the pharmacist.

Several CPM and CPI leaders camping in the Chelakkara privately admit that the contest between Pradeep and Congress's Ramya Haridas is closer than it appears.

"We have not seen the Congress and the Muslim League working so hard, so meticulously in Chelakkara. They started their work soon after the Lok Sabha election," says a CPM leader. Chelakkara constituency has around 45 per cent Muslim population. In 2021, Radhakrishnan won from Chelakkara with a margin of 39,400 votes—his fifth and biggest win. But in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, when he defeated Congress's Ramya Haridas in the Alathur parliamentary constituency, his lead in the Chelakkara assembly segment was only 5,173 votes.

Nilambur MLA P V Anvar, who broke ranks with the LDF and formed the Democratic Movement of Kerala (DMK), has fielded Congress's dissident NK Sudheer, a former secretary of Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee, in Chelakkara.

"Most of the SDPI supporters are with Anvar. If he takes away the maximum anti-government votes, we can sail past," says the CPM leader in Chelakkara. Chelakkara has 22 wards, of which CPM won in 12, Congress in nine wards, and BJP in one ward.

Nearly 20 km from Chelakkara panchayat is Deshamangalam grama panchayat, LDF candidate Pradeep's village, where he was the president and vice president. Pradeep's neighbour Rafeeq (41), who makes soaps and sells in Thrissur, says he is working hard to ensure Ramya's victory.

"I voted for Pradeep in 2016 because I wanted an MLA from our village. This time, I won't. I am sick of this government," says Rafeeq, who was earlier with the CPM. "Shameless government. It works only for its supporters, be it sanctioning houses distributing poultry birds or providing jobs. It has been making the Kondayoor bridge for the past eight years," says Yusuf, an elderly man with allegiance to the Congress's trade union.

"I have never felt this strongly against the government. I just want to see it gone."Deshamangalam panchayat has 15 wards. The LDF has eight members, and UDF has seven. " In the last Lok Sabha election, the CPM's lead was only 147 votes," says Dineshan, a newspaper agent. " How did the CPM slide so much? It is hugely unpopular here," he says. But Ramya's chances of winning hinges on how the BJP fares in the election, he says. " Because I think BJP could be eating into Congress votes," he says.

BJP has fielded Thiruvilwamala panchayat vice-president K Balakrishnan as its candidate. In 2010, the panchayat did not have any BJP members. In 2015, three BJP members, including Balakrishnan, were elected. In 2020, the BJP is as big as the Congress and bigger than the CPM in Thiruvilwamala.

"Balakrishnan knows to grow and nurture the party," says Kunhikrishnan, a CPM supporter. In 2016 Assembly election, the vote share of BJP was 15.77 per cent in Chelakkara; in 2021, it was 15.68 per cent; in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, BJP's TN Sarayu got nearly 20 per cent vote share in Chelaraka assembly segment.

"Every vote above 24,000 for BJP will hurt Ramya," said Dineshan, who too has voted for Pradeep before.Congress MLA from Muvattupuzha Mathew Kuzhalnadan, who is in charge of Ramya's campaign, says the UDF has become successful in making the election "political", explaining why personal relationships may not convert to votes.

"Pinarayi Vijayan and the corruption by his family is at the centre of this election. The Left cadre too is dissatisfied, disoriented and disappointed. This election will be more of a vote against the government than a vote for Ramya," he says.