Anil Antony’s candidature in Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha constituency would harm the prospects of the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), as per a ManoramaNews-VMR pre-poll survey.

The survey predicted an erosion of five per cent votes from the LDF kitty. The UDF is expected to retain its vote share, and the BJP’s share will also see a slight dip, as per the survey.

It hints that even the probability of LDF candidate and former Finance Minister Thomas Isaac being relegated to the third slot should not come as a surprise.

The UDF is set to gain 37.6 per cent, the NDA 28.13 per cent and LDF 27.75 per cent. Other parties and independents could garner as many as five per cent votes.

In 2019, UDF bagged 37.11 per cent of votes and LDF garnered 32.8 per cent. The NDA could get 28.97 per cent votes in the election during the peak of the Sabarimala Temple agitation. BJP state president K Surendran, who spearheaded the agitation, won 2.98 lakh votes. But in the subsequent Assembly polls in 2021, this trend did not reflect in any of the assembly constituencies in the Pathanamthitta LS seat barring Konni.

If Anil Antony succeeds in keeping the number of votes Surendran got and ends up in the second position, it would be a major boost to him.

Pathanamthitta has never elected a non-Congress candidate since its formation, but sitting MP Anto Antony’s share margin has come down in all polls.

In 2009, Anto Antony defeated CPM’s K Ananthagopan by a margin of 1,11,206 votes. That shrunk to 56,191 in 2014. In 2019, Antony defeated Veena George by 44,243 votes.

The survey conducted in March had 28,000 respondents and asked this query to voters: Who would win if elections were to be held today?

Manorama News-VMR survey has the largest number of participants in any pre-poll survey in Kerala.