Though he began his sunset briefing on Thursday with a note of concern, saying it was the seventh consecutive 100-plus day, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan hinted that the current surge in cases could pale in comparison to what could happen by the end of August.

On Thursday, 123 fresh cases were declared positive. In the last seven days alone, 932 new cases have been reported.

He said the government was in possession of a report by the State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA) that stated that COVID-19 cases could peak by the end of August. The Chief Minister, however, did not reveal the prediction of the SDMA. "The prediction is based on the existing trend. It could either go up or down," The Chief Minister said.

It was clear he mentioned the potentially scary SDMA projection to emphasise the need for stricter controls. He then spelled out what the returning Malayalis and the resident population could do.

Dos and don'ts for returnees

The Chief Minister said the returnees had generally stuck to quarantine protocols. The virus has transmitted from only seven per cent of those who had returned, he Chief Minister said. "We were able to prevent transmission from 93 per cent of those who had come infected from outside," he said.

The Chief Minister also saw this as the triumph of the home quarantine system Kerala is championing. This has to be further tightened at a time when the cases were on the rise, he added.

He reiterated that returnees should drive straight back home from the airport, without the usual visit to the homes of close relatives and friends on the way. The objective is to keep contacts down to zero.

False sense of security

He also warned returnees not to take at face value the results of antibody tests that would be compulsorily done on them at the airports in Kerala.

It is not necessary that the test picks up the infection as the antibodies would take more than a week after the onset to show up. "They should not be lulled into a false sense of security. Everyone, whether positive or negative, should strictly observe room quarantine," the Chief Minister said.

Between June 25 and 30, 111 chartered flights and 43 Vande Bharat flights are scheduled to reach Kerala. On June 24, 72 flights had reached Kerala. “From tomorrow onwards we expect 40-50 flighs a day. Kochi and Kozhikode will witness the most number of arrivals,” the Chief Minister said.

Diary of events

As for non-residents, the Chief Minister spoke of the need to keep a 'Break the Chain Diary'. He said people going out should meticulously note down the number of the vehicle they had hired, the time they started, and all other things they do on a day like a visit to a hotel or a hospital or a shop or a house. The Chief Minister said this would be of great help to trace contacts if at all someone in the link was found positive later.

The dairy is seen as an effective way to connect a mystery or orphan infection to some source, and thus break the quickly elongating links of a silent community spread.

Worst case scenario planning

The Chief Minister also said that Kerala was already prepared for the kind of surge foreshadowed in the SDMA report. He said Plan A, B and C, depending on the severity of the situation, were already in place.

Under Plan A, 29 COVID hospitals and 29 COVID first line treatment centres are operational in all the 14 districts. In these COVID hospitals, there are 8537 beds, 872 ICU beds and 482 ventilators exclusively for COVID patients.

"As the number rises, more beds will be added. Second line treatment centres will also be selected," he Chief Minister said.

In the 29 COVID first line treatment centres, there are 479 patients in 3180 beds. In Plan B and C, 141 more first line treatment centres have also been identified and in all of these centres there will be a total of 15,975 beds.

15,000 tests a day in a week's time

The Chief Minister also said that testing would be ramped up. From July, he plan is to conduct 15,000 tests a day. Now, only 4500-5000 tests are being conducted daily.

He said the cases per million is 109 in Kerala, meanng there are 109 infected for 10 lakh population. For India, it is 362. The test positivity rate for Kerala, or the share of positive cases in the results declared, 1.8 per cent. For India, it is 6.2 per cent.

Here's the district-wise break-up of today's cases:

Alappuzha - 18

Ernakulam - 10

Idukki - 3

Kasaragod - 4

Kannur - 9

Kozhikode - 7

Kollam - 13

Kottayam - 2

Malappuram - 6

Pathanamthitta - 13

Palakkad - 24

Thiruvananthapuram - 2

Thrissur - 10

Wayanad - 2

Of them, 84 have come from abroad and 33 from other states. Six contracted the disease through contact.

There are currently 113 hotspots in the state.

Recoveries

Fifty-three persons were cured of the disease on Thursday. With this, 1,941 people have recovered in the state.

A total of 1,59,616 people are under observation in the state. Of them, 2,349 are in hospitals.

A total of 344 people were admitted in hospitals on Thursday.

So far, 1,56,401 samples have been sent for testing. The results of 4,182 samples are awaited.

Here's the district-wise break-up of today's recoveries:

Alappuzha - 3

Ernakulam - 2

Idukki - 2

Kasaragod - 8

Kannur - 1

Kozhikode - 6

Kottayam - 2

Malappuram - 12

Pathanamthitta - 9

Palakkad - 5

Thrissur - 3

District-wise details:

Palakkad reported 24 cases on Thursday. With this, the number of active cases in the district rose to 225. The district has the highest number of patients undergoing treatment. All the 24 cases are returnees -- 16 from abroad and eight from other states.

Eighteen more cases were confirmed in Alappuzha. Of them, three contracted the disease through contact. Five of those tested positive on Thursday belong to one family at Punnapra. Those tested positive are a youth and his wife who had returned from Bengaluru on June 12, his parents and sister-in-law. The couple were home quarantined and their relatives got the disease through contact with them.

Pathanamthitta and Kollam districts reported 13 cases each. In Pathanamthitta, nine are returnees from abroad and four rom other states. The cases in Kollam are also returnees. Six of them returned from Saudi, four from Kuwait and one each from Dubai, Nigeria and Chennai. The patiens include a two-year-old boy and a six-year-old girl at Kallumthazham. 

Of the 10 cases in Thrissur, one contracted the disease through contact. A 33-year-old woman, who works at the health wing of Thrissur corporation, contracted the virus through contact. She is a native of Poyya. Seven patients are returnees from abroad and two from Tamil Nadu and Gujarat.

Ernakulam also reported two cases through contact. They are two Amballoor natives, aged 32 and 13, who are close relatives of a health worker who had tested positive on June 13. Five came from abroad and three from other states.

Other districts

Kozhikode -- Five from abroad and two from Tamil Nadu

Kannur -- Five from abroad and four from other states

Malappuram -- All six from abroad

Kasaragod -- All four from abroad

Thiruvananthapuram -- One each from Kuwait and Odisha

Wayanad -- One from Dubai and one from Hyderabad

Kottayam -- One each from Delhi and Mumbai.

Some important points from CM's press briefing:

• The state is trying to conduct 15k COVID-19 tests per day.

• Spread of disease has been reported from only 7 per cent of those who test positive among returnees.

• In view of an increased number of flights to Kerala from Friday, extensive arrangements have been madxe in the airports in Kerala.

• Antibody testing will be conducted at airports on passengers who arrive from abroad without getting themselves examined for COVID-19. Passengers who test positive will have to undergo PCR testing.

• The CM advised public to keep a 'Break the Chain diary' to keep track of one's travels and contact with others. The CM said that it will aid the route map preparation process if the person tests positive.

• Kerala's COVID-19 mortality rate is at 0.6% while India's is 3.1%.

• 20 of the 22 COVID-19 deaths reported in Kerala were due to co-morbidities.

• CM asked the public to inform the police about any crowd or public gathering by sending photos and videos.

• Measures will be taken to avail snacks and drinks at the airports in the state at an affordable rate.

• Barricades will be placed in containment zones. Regulations and curbs will be tightened in this areas and police force will be deployed to ensure this.

• Action will be taken against motorists and passengers who fail to follow COVID-19 guidelines.