The number of fresh positive cases in Kerala on Thursday dropped to two, the fifth day in April when Kerala had reported only two new patients, or even less, in day. And it is also the first time in over a week the number of cured in a day far outpaced the new cases: 14 to 2.

The person who had tested positive in Malappuram had come from Maharashtra on March 22. He had been in hospital for some time. The other person, in Kasaragod, is said to have contracted the virus from contact. Top sources said the patient's contact has been established.

Collector, IGs quarantined

But given the virus's unpredictable behaviour, it would be suicidal to drop guard. “It was sheer carelessness that had led to many people contracting the virus in our state,” Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said during his sunset briefing in Thiruvananthapuram on Thursday. “Even slight carelessness would make a COVID patient of any of us,” he added.

Kasaragod collector D Sajith Babu and two top police officials of IG rank, Vijay Sakhare and Ashok Yadav, have been asked to quarantine themselves fearing they had come into contact with a visual journalist who had tested positive on April 29.

Accumulating 'orphans'

April's experience have shown that low numbers could be deceptive. Though the sudden fall in fresh cases since April 15 had evoked a sense of triumph, the numbers shot up from April 21.

After that, indicating a disturbing change in the nature of the spread, fresh cases with no known sources of infection became the norm. Till then, the government was able to find the source of almost all the positive cases.

In at least 15 cases that turned positive in the last six days, an epidemiological link has not been established. It was found that these “orphan positives” were not infected by a foreign returnee. Nor was the virus passed on to them by a primary or secondary contact of a foreign returnee. A mystery source, hidden inside the community, had seeded them.

Community transmission was no more a distant horror story, something that Kerala would witness unfolding in some faraway land and feel relieved to be spared. Now, the deadly rustle of the virus spreading undetected could be heard right amidst us.

CM's confession

The government had consistently brushed aside fears of silent local spread. But on Thursday, for the first time ever, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan conceded that “in certain cases we have not been able to trace the origin of the infection”.

The chief minister also acknowledged that the virus is cropping up in unlikely places. “There is an outbreak of illness in unexpected areas,” he said, referring to the renewed viral activity in Kottayam, Idukki and Kollam. He said there could be many reasons for this. One, he said was the import of the virus in trucks coming from outside the state.

However, the cross-border movement of trucks carrying food supplies was essential for Kerala's survival. Since the lockdown, 2,068 trucks had crossed the border with supplies. “However, we have been able to identify these people and their contacts, and swiftly quarantine them,” the chief minister said.

No hurricane spread

However, even if there is community transmission, it does not look strong enough to cause a widespread eruption of positive cases. Of the 1,508 samples taken from high-risk groups like health workers and others with high social exposure like politicians and policemen, 897 have already tested negative. The remaining results will be declared in the coming two days.

As part of augmented testing among the general population, 3,128 samples were taken and were processed in 14 accredited government labs. Out of this, 3089 has turned negative. Only four were declared positive till date.

Both the augmented surveillance and the samples of high-risk groups were taken to see whether there was community transmission in Kerala. “These figures show that there is no scary situation in Kerala,” a top health official said.

Three cases that were declared positive in Idukki on April 27, and which were returned for reconfirmation, had also turned negative. In fact 25 results that were declared positive were sent back for reconfirmation on April 27 and 11, including the three in Idukki, had come back on Thursday showing negative in the repeat test. The results of the remaining 14 are now awaited.

Gamechanger results

However, the results of more than 350 samples each from Idukki and Kottayam, the two emerging hotspots, are expected in the coming days. Though no positive case was reported from Kottayam on Thursday, one more hotspot was added to the district: Udayanapuram panchayat. Now, Kottayam has 11 hotspots.

Neyyatinkara municipality where two new cases were reported on April 29 is the new hotspot in Thiruvananthapuram, which had just one hospot (Varkala Municipality). Two hotspots were added to Kollam, too; Oachira and Thrikkovilvattam panchayats. Kollam now has eight hotspots.

Kerala now has a total of 70 hotspots, with Kannur leading the list with 22. Hotspots will have all roads blocked except one through which very essential movement will be allowed. Shops will also remain closed here and there will only be home delivery of essential goods.

Commendable recovery rate

Thursday's recovery rate was encouraging. Of the 14 cured, four are in Palakkad, three in Kollam, two each in Kannur and Kasaragod, and one each in Pathanamthitta, Malappuram and

Kozhikode.

While the active cases have gone up in Idukki (14), Kottayam (17)and Kollam (12), it has dropped in Palakkad (2), Kozhikode (1) and Kasaragod (12). Kannur has he highest number with 46 active cases.