Transformed agenda for Modi’s visit to Washington

Given the strategic relationship between the two countries and the famed bromance between the two leaders, the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week to Washington should have been an occasion for the two leaders to pick up the threads left off four years ago and strengthen the global partnership by discussing political, economic, military and energy relationships and the measures necessary to take them forward.

But Donald Trump's dramatic return to power with a decisive victory, his statements before and after the elections, and the flurry of executive orders he has issued have transformed the agenda of the summit. 

The early invitation to Modi to visit Washington ahead of the traditional allies of the United States without inviting him to the inauguration and the reported discussions EAM Jaishankar had with the officials of the Biden and Trump administrations have been matters of speculation. India’s expression of its readiness to accept illegal immigrants without any conditions was also considered unusual.

Some fundamental issues raised by Trump in identifying issues of immediate concern are such that a redefinition of bilateral relations with other countries, including India, appears necessary. Trump must be reminded that his diktats to other countries violate their sovereignty and territorial integrity. 

Territorial claims made on Canada, Greenland, Panama Canal and Gaza are not admissible in international relations. They have complicated the existing global situation and created new issues, particularly in West Asia. Like Modi repeatedly told Putin to his face that this was not an era for war, Trump should be told that he is not the President of the world, but only of the United States and that all claims should be discussed with the concerned countries. 

He must also be told that the United Nations, built by his predecessors, still exists as the conscience of mankind. He is still paying 22 per cent of the UN budget, not to speak of the Specialized Agencies to which he is committed. He should be reminded that he is not a party to the International Criminal Court and his sanctions will make no difference to the Court in its functioning. The executive orders of a President cannot change the global order. It takes patient diplomacy and negotiations to bring about consensus positions.

It will be hard for Modi to relate to Trump’s policy on the deportation of illegal aliens, particularly after he faced an angry Parliament over the dispatch of a hundred Indians, who were transported in a military aircraft, shackled like criminals. There was a communication gap here, because the Americans understood India’s reaction to the proposed first batch of Indians as a lack of concern for their welfare and safety. He merely expressed the hope that India would deal with the issue responsibly.

The return of the military aircraft from Columbia and the imposition of additional tariffs by the US on that country have generated an explosive cocktail in American policy. India has imposed conditions for future deportations, but a proper procedure for deporting the remaining Indians does not seem to have been worked out. It remains to be seen whether this issue will figure in the discussions in Washington. 

The emergence of new issues may have dampened the programme for bilateral cooperation drawn up during the Modi-Biden summit, where progress was made on the availability of new and emerging technologies to India. The threat of using trade wars as an instrument of policy is likely to distract attention from the progress achieved in bilateral relations.

China may figure prominently in the discussions as the interests of India coincide with Trump’s own world view as indicated in a quick meeting of the Quad, held in Washington within days of the assumption of office by the new President. The Quad is scheduled to meet in India later this year. The India-US congruence on China is likely to be a major factor in the evolution of India-US relations. On Russia, Trump’s focus is on ending the war and not on India’s position on the issue. The purchase of Russian oil by India is also not a point of contention between India and the United States.

The biggest challenge will be Trump's unpredictability and penchant for creating shock and awe as part of his strategy to dominate the world. But Trump’s conversation with Modi may help him regain a sense of realism in his worldview. It may also lead to a new understanding between the two leaders on Trump's new agenda, which has bewildered the world.