UNION BUDGET '24

Budget session: GDP likely to grow at 6.5 to 7% this fiscal, says Economic Survey

New Delhi: India's GDP is likely to grow at 6.5 to 7 per cent in the current fiscal year amid global challenges which may impact exports, said Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday.

The growth projected for 2024-25 is lower than the economic growth rate of 8.2 per cent estimated for the previous financial year.

The Reserve Bank has projected the GDP growth for the fiscal year ending March 2025 at 7.2 per cent. Global agencies like IMF and ADB see India to grow at 7 per cent.
"...the Survey conservatively projects a real GDP growth of 6.57 per cent, with risks evenly balanced, cognizant of the fact that the market expectations are on the higher side," said the document tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament.

It said the domestic growth drivers have supported economic growth in 2023-24 despite uncertain global economic performance. Improved balance sheets will help the private sector cater to strong investment demand.

The Survey also added a note of caution saying "private capital formation after good growth in the last three years may turn slightly more cautious because of fears of cheaper imports from countries that have excess capacity".

While merchandise exports are likely to increase with improving growth prospects in advance economies, services exports are also likely to witness a further uptick.

A normal rainfall forecast by the India Meteorological Department and the satisfactory spread of the southwest monsoon thus far are likely to improve the agriculture sector's performance and support the revival of rural demand, it said.

However, the monsoon season still has some way to go, the Survey said.