The world will face a new and intensifying era of crisis for children in the year ahead, warns a UNICEF report titled ‘Prospects for Children in 2025: Building Resilient Systems for Children’s Futures’.

• Climate change, economic instability, conflict and digital inequality are not only disrupting children’s lives but limiting and reshaping their futures. These crises are not isolated: they are part of a broader shift in the world, including rising geopolitical tensions and competition among nations, which hinder the implementation of cohesive solutions. 

• They also disproportionately impact those already marginalised by existing structures and discriminatory social norms based on age, gender, race, ethnicity, religion and disability status. 

• Yet, amid these uncertainties lies an opportunity to rethink and strengthen the systems that uphold children’s rights and well-being. Governments and institutions play a pivotal role in confronting these crises through governance systems that are not only adaptable and resilient but also grounded in norms and principles, including equity, accountability and the rule of law.

• The report demands strengthening national systems that are designed to mitigate the impacts of crises on children.

Key issues to watch in 2025

1) Geopolitics

• Children’s lives, rights and well-being are increasingly under threat in conflict. Over 473 million children — more than one in six globally — lived in areas affected by conflict in 2023, a number that is likely to have risen in 2024. The percentage of children affected by conflict has almost doubled to almost 19 per cent in 2024 from around 10 per cent in the 1990s.

• Amid growing geopolitical rivalries and the paralysis of multilateral institutions, both state and non-state actors appear increasingly willing to flout international laws designed to protect civilian populations, with attacks on civilian infrastructure like schools and hospitals becoming ever more common. 

• This unravelling of decades of efforts to safeguard civilians is taking a heavy toll on children. As well as the risks to their lives, children face displacement and the threat of starvation and disease. There are also substantial risks to their psychological wellbeing.

• Challenges to respect for legal norms in armed conflict reflect a weakening in the ability of multilateral systems to respond. Core mechanisms of the United Nations have faced escalating challenges, with the United Nations Security Council effectively deadlocked. United Nations peacekeeping and special political missions are also in steep decline. These issues reflect seismic power shifts at the global level.

• Strong legal frameworks foster an environment where compliance with child-rights law and international humanitarian law is non-negotiable and accountability inevitable. For these to be realised, international standards need to be translated into enforceable national law, policy and security-sector practice.

2) Economics

• Economic prospects in emerging markets are discouraging, with growth well below the 7 per cent target set in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A mix of pandemic scarring, climate shocks, and resource constraints means emerging markets’ growth prospects have fallen from historical averages of 5.6 per cent to just 4 per cent by 2026–2029.

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• Governments’ coffers are being hit by a mix of weak tax revenues, declining aid and rising debt. Tax revenues of around 11 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in many developing economies are

lower than the 15 per cent considered necessary to fund basic services.

• Although Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) has hit record levels, it increasingly targets humanitarian crises rather than long-term development funding. And rising debt is creating unprecedented budget pressures. Developing countries now spend 14 per cent of government revenues on interest payments alone — double what they spent 15 years ago.

• Nearly 400 million children live in countries where debt distress hinders vital investments essential for their development and well-being. Among the 34 African Union countries with available data, 15 now allocate more to debt servicing than to education. Over 40 low-income countries

globally spend twice as much on debt servicing as on health, including some countries with very large child populations. In social protection, debt service now consumes 11 times as much as social protection spending across developing countries.

• The failure to invest in children not only harms children’s lives today (and their lifetime prospects), but also undermines countries’ long-term capacity to repay their debts.

3) Environment and climate change

• The outlook for children is increasingly worrying in a world that is now on track to see global temperatures rise by at least 2°C by 2100. Children are disproportionately impacted by climate change due to their unique physiological and developmental characteristics. Children under five years of age bear 88 per cent of the global disease burden associated with climate change.

• Opportunities for progress for children are evident in four areas of governance — national planning, climate financing, business regulation and climate litigation.

• Revisions to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) have potential to take stronger account of children’s critical vulnerabilities and needs. NDCs are expected to evolve to demonstrate how governments will increase both the pace and scale of ambition and advance implementation to achieve it.

• Financing mechanisms are critical enablers for the NDCs, but – despite progress at the 2024 Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) – financing needs are far from being met. Only 2.4 per cent of multilateral climate finance is characterized as being child-responsive, and additional and targeted finance is critical to address loss and damage.

• To address the critical intersection of climate action and child rights, action is needed to ensure national policy frameworks more explicitly incorporate child rights through dedicated commitments, timelines and funding allocations. 

• On funding, climate finance should include earmarked funding for child-centred climate initiatives. On regulation, strengthening legally backed climate reporting and monitoring are key to effective climate action for children.

• 2025 presents crucial opportunities to make progress towards global climate goals. This means comprehensive and robust policymaking, adequate and equitable financing and investments, strong regulatory and accountability frameworks, and effective monitoring systems.

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4) Technology

• Several digital trends are poised to shape our future in 2025 and beyond. Rapid advancements in emerging technologies will continue to shape all spheres of children’s lives from education to communication to participation in the digital economy.

• Amid rapid adoption around the world, Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) can fundamentally shift how governments engage with citizens. DPI is sometimes compared to physical infrastructure: just as roads and railways connect people and allow them to access goods and services, DPI provides the basis for the large-scale delivery of digital public services, including for children and their families.

• DPI can play a crucial role in advancing children’s well-being by ensuring equitable access to essential services such as education, health care and social protection. 

• For example, digital IDs linked to electronic civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems can help people throughout their lives by providing a single source of identification across systems.

• Digital payment infrastructures can facilitate seamless disbursement of financial support for families and children, and reduce risks associated with theft or loss.

• DPI represents far more than a technological advance. It is becoming a critical enabler of inclusive digital transformation. It can also be central to providing effective digital governance, promoting rules that drive development, inclusion, trust, innovation, and respect for human rights.

• But DPI is not inherently inclusive. Persistent inequalities in digital access, particularly in the least developed countries, are a major barrier to ensuring DPI serves every child and community. While most young people are connected to the internet in high-income countries, only 53 per cent of youth (15–24-year-olds) are online in Africa. Adolescent girls are particularly affected, as are children with disabilities, with 9 out of 10 adolescent girls and young women (aged 15–24 years) offline in lowincome countries.

• DPI systems have immense potential to transform public services for children and families. In doing so, they must prioritise children’s rights and truly serve the best interests of every child. Key priorities include enabling seamless, safe and secure data exchange between health, education and social services to create a holistic support  system for child development; factoring in the needs and sensitivities of vulnerable and marginalised groups; and empowering children, youth and their families through digital financial inclusion and literacy.

5) Global governance

• New and ongoing crises will continue to challenge the future of global governance. In 2025, nations and institutions must address the critical question of whether the global multilateral framework will unify to form a cohesive response to our shared challenges or fragment further, risking a loss of collective action. 

• Progress for children requires stronger alignment between global and national priorities. Strengthening national systems and aligning them with global frameworks is central to achieving shared global goals in areas such as health, education, safety, poverty eradication and climate adaptation. Such alignment creates a foundation of resilience, by harmonising standards and approaches, pooling resources and integrating responses to crises. 

• Robust national systems are key to ensuring that interventions can be brought to scale. They provide the infrastructure, governance and accountability required to expand successful initiatives nationally or even regionally. Well-functioning systems standardize processes and policies, enabling consistent and equitable implementation across diverse contexts while fostering innovation and adaptability.

• In 2025, nations and institutions must address the critical question of whether the global multilateral framework will unify to form a cohesive response to our shared challenges or fragment further, risking a loss of collective action. The direction we take will deeply impact efforts to protect children’s rights and well-being across the world.

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