Palakkad: With just two days left for the Palakkad byelection, the BJP, which had managed to keep its internal differences under wraps, is now grappling with renewed cracks. Reports and rumours suggest that six of the party’s 28 councillors, including those from the dissenting faction, are siding with popular BJP spokesperson and State Committee member Sandeep Varier, who joined the Congress two days ago. In the crucial Palakkad byelection, the BJP has fielded party state General Secretary and four-time councillor C Krishnakumar — a choice opposed by these councillors during the early days of campaigning.

In 2021, its candidate 'Metroman' E Sreedharan lost by just 3,859 votes to the popular and much-loved incumbent, Shafi Parambil. "With Shafi out of the way, we see a genuine chance of winning in Palakkad," said a female party worker running an eatery in the town, clearly disappointed with the BJP squandering its chance over petty differences among leaders. In an attempt to counter the renewed speculation over the rift, the BJP fielded Priya Ajayan, the previous municipal chairperson and leader of the group of six, to dismiss the rumours and assert their loyalty to the party.

She insisted that Varier’s exit would not hurt the BJP and that none of the 28 councillors would quit the party. However, her clarification only added weight to the rumours, raising doubts about unity in the ranks — doubts that could jeopardise the BJP's chances in Palakkad at this critical juncture. "In any organisation, there will be differences of opinion. Some issues get resolved, others don’t. But when the organisation assigns us a task, we must work to achieve it. That’s what we do as grassroots workers," said Priya Ajayan.

Her words, however, ring hollow, especially because, according to reliable sources, she stayed away from the campaigning. She was forced to step down as chairperson of the municipality in December 2023 after three years of acrimonious infighting in the municipality. Priya Ajayan was replaced by her rival, Pramila Sasidharan, in the January election after hectic parleys. But in the last financial year, the municipality spent only around 20 per cent of its plan fund.

Priya Ajayan (45) is not just another councillor. She is a successful businesswoman managing multiple institutions and is a representative of the Moothan caste — a wealthy trading community and a staunch supporter of the RSS and BJP in Palakkad. "Her removal as chairperson was given a spin that it was against the Moothan community. The party took action because she operated under the influence of a clique, ignoring the party's directions," said a BJP leader from Palakkad. "The same narrative is being reactivated now," he said.

BJP councillors' rally
Sources in the BJP revealed that the Congress had tried to poach nine BJP councillors, but timely intervention by the RSS defused the situation. On Monday, the BJP plans to showcase unity by parading all 28 of its councillors in an election rally in Palakkad town. BJP state president K Surendran mocked Congress national general secretary K C Venugopal, accusing him of orchestrating a failed "Operation Hand". He claimed the effort was facilitated by a TV journalist, whom he refrained from naming but whose photograph he posted along with the message on Facebook. Meanwhile, Priya Ajayan said on Sunday that all 28 BJP councillors are putting in their best efforts. "All 28 councillors are one team," she said.

Priya Ajayan's clique
Priya Ajayan's clique was headed by a dissident BJP councillor from Kalpathy East Viswanathan K V, and included two female councillors from the CPM, two male Congress councillors and a female BJP councillor, BJP leaders said. "She took cues only from Viswanathan ignoring the party," one of them said. The RSS held talks with leaders of the Moothan community and convinced them before the BJP pressed for Priya's resignation, he said. "The public was suffering. She was keeping files pending even from the vice chairman E Krishnadas (BJP state treasurer)," he said and added that it was a settled matter.

When Sandeep Varier joined the Congress on Saturday, he raised the issue of Priya Rajan and the BJP's alleged slight on the Moothan community. On the same day, AICC Secretary P V Mohan, in charge of the Palakkad byelection, told Onmanorama that Congress planned to wrest the Palakkad municipality from the BJP. "We are winning back seven wards currently held by the BJP," he said. The following day, on Sunday, UDF social media groups buzzed with rumours that six BJP councillors had "gone missing", a euphemism to say that they are not in touch with the party leadership and are huddled together to revolt. Nothing of that sort happened. Venugopal cancelled his planned press conference with Sandeep Varier on Sunday. Priya Ajayan said her resignation a year ago was a non-issue today. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, BJP fielded the same candidate (Krishnakumar) in Palakkad. "The BJP's vote share in areas like Kannaki and Moothanthara reflects the mind of the people," she said, implying that the BJP had performed well. However, in the Lok Sabha election, Congress led in 52 of the 104 booths in the municipality, up from 41 in the 2021 Assembly election.

Municipality holds the key for BJP
For the BJP, the municipality is key in the Palakkad assembly. The RSS-BJP alliance holds a vote share of around 40-45 per cent, but when the three grama panchayats of Pirayiri, Mathur, and Kannadi are factored in, BJP's share drops below 35 per cent. While the BJP controls 27 of the 52 wards in the municipality, it only has four members across the 52 wards in these panchayats.

Some BJP leaders believe Krishnakumar can retain the party's municipal votes despite councillor differences but lacks the appeal to connect with voters in the grama panchayats, where the RSS network is weak. "He'll make the election look close, but in reality, he's a hurdle for the BJP in tapping its full potential in Palakkad, with its sizable Hindu population," said a party leader in the 15-member Kannadi grama panchayat, where BJP does not have one ward member. (LDF has eight and UDF has seven members in Kannadi.)

However, that didn’t stop party workers from conducting three rounds of 28 family meets in the panchayat. "We’re doing our best to reach out to new voters," he said.BJP is almost ignoring Pirayiri, where a sizeable population is from the minority Muslim community and focusing on consolidating Hindu votes in Kannadi and Mathur grama panchayat.

Sandeep Varier factor: A double-edged sword
The UDF is hoping to cash in on Sandeep Varier's popularity among the right-leaning youth in the by-election. But it runs a risk of antagonising the constituency's upper caste voters who traditionally side with the UDF, said Moideen A, the district vice-president of Abdul Nasir Maudany's People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Sandeep held extreme views, which may not go down well with the upper caste Gandhian voters of Palakkad, Moideen said. The Muslims, however, are unlikely to ditch the UDF over Sandeep's entry, he said. On the ground too, Muslim voters aligned with the UDF had no reservations on Sandeep Varier. The PDP, however, has declared its support for the LDF in the byelection, putting the CPM in an awkward position.

CPM leader P Jayarajan's recent book on political Islam said that Maudany played a key role in radicalising Muslim youths in the State. Moideen said PDP has only around 100 votes in Mathur and another 1,000 votes in Palakkad municipality. When asked if PDP is voting for LDF candidate P Sarin because he has a better chance to win in Palakkad, Moideen said, "When the LDF does not have such a hope, how can I express such a hope? We are voting for the LDF because it is the party's decision". However, he said that all three fronts ran an intense campaign in Palakkad, reaching out to all areas and all sections of the people.