Thiruvananthapuram: The BJP may have made history by winning a Parliament seat from Kerala, but the saffron party’s rivals don’t see it as any sign of a change in the state’s political climate which is largely defined by the fortunes of the two major fronts – CPM-led LDF and Congress-led UDF.

Participating in the Manorama News Conclave 2024, Congress general secretary (organisation) K C Venugopal outrightly belittled BJP candidate Suresh Gopi’s win in Thrissur Lok Sabha seat as a temporary phenomenon while CPM leader and State Industries Minister P Rajeeve instantly backed the former. Going a step ahead, Rajeeve even said that the people of Thrissur might have already started to think that they made a mistake.

Both Venugopal and Rajeeve acknowledged that the BJP has been able to improve its vote share, but expressed optimism that it would not be able to break the bipolar pattern in Kerala. “A major factor behind the rise in BJP’s vote share had been what is called the Modi factor. It is already shrinking,” Rajeeve said.

BJP leader and former Union minister of state V Muraleedharan did not agree. He cited history to prove that BJP has only been growing in the state steadily. He said over the past elections, his party has been able to win panchayats, municipalities, one assembly seat and finally a Parliament segment. “Going by the Lok Sabha poll results, we are ahead in 11 assembly seats now. During the state polls due in 2026, the number will only improve,” he said.

Venugopal said a strong anti-incumbency wave against the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF government also contributed to the rise in BJP’s vote share. “There was a strong anti-incumbency sentiment even amid CPM supporters. In some places, UDF benefited from it and in some BJP,” he said. The Congress MP, who is the chairman of the Public Accounts Committee, exuded confidence that the UDF will come to power in Kerala in 2026.

Rajeeve countered it saying the voting pattern in the Lok Sabha elections would not repeat in the state polls. “During the Parliament elections there was an overwhelming sentiment against the BJP in Kerala. Though we tried our best (in election campaign), people thought Congress can do better in Centre. Even if we had performed in 100 per cent satisfying manner, the results would not have been much different,” he said. He said just like the LDF retained power in 2021 two years after it suffered a drubbing in Lok Sabha polls in 2019, the Left front will win 2026 elections too.