Kochi: Amid concerns about the vulnerability of Kerala’s environment, triggered yet again by the deadly landslides in Wayanad district, a scientific study has opened more room for fear – a prerequisite for precautionary and corrective measures.

While life in the hilly regions looks like a risky affair for many, a recent study by the Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), a Bengaluru-based think-tank, suggests that it is not safe in the coastal areas too.

The study titled “Sea Level Rise Scenarios and Inundation Maps for Selected Indian Coastal Cities” has identified Kochi, Kozhikode and Thiruvananthapuram – the main cities in the southern state – as regions under increasing risk of sea level rise and resultant inundation.

The report presents information on changes in sea levels under historical and future climate scenarios for 15 Indian coastal cities and towns and looks into possible inundation areas in the regions under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) medium-and high emission Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for 2040, 2060, 2080 and 2100.

The study projects that the sea level rise (SLR) will continue until the end of the century under all scenarios and all 15 cities and towns will experience increases in SLR. While SLR will be higher in Mumbai, Tier-II cities and towns such as Panaji, Udupi, Mangaluru, Kochi, Kozhikode, Kanniyakumari, and Thiruvananthapuram may also experience a high increase in sea levels under future climate change scenarios.

Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario (CO2 emissions remain around current levels until 2050, followed by a fall but not reaching net zero by 2100), the SLR is projected to be 76.2 cm at Mumbai, followed by Panaji (75.5 cm), Udupi (75.3 cm), Mangaluru (75.2 cm), Kozhikode (75.1 cm), Kochi (74.9 cm), Thiruvananthapuram (74.7 cm) and Kanyakumari (74.7 cm) by 2100.

Under the high-emission scenario, where CO2 emissions are expected to double by 2100, the rise would be the highest for Mangaluru (100.1 cm), followed by Kochi (100 cm), Kozhikode (99.9 cm), Thiruvananthapuram (99.4 cm), Visakhapatnam (91.3 cm), and Haldia (90.9 cm) by 2100.

Based on the projections, the study also lists out places which could be under inundation by 2100.

In Kochi, major spots including the airport, Ernakulam Wharf, Fort Kochi beach, and Subhash Bose Park may go underwater. Marad and Kamburam beach, Theeram Bliss Park, Puthiyappa fishing harbour, and Jetty park are among the places likely to be inundated in Kozhikode.

In Thiruvananthapuram, airport, Pozhikkara beach, Valiyathura beach, Shangumugham beach, Perumathura beach and Akkulam lake are among the areas vulnerable to inundation.

“Under future climate scenarios, SLR-induced inundation will lead to extended coastal flooding, with serious impacts on key sectors such as water, agriculture, forest and biodiversity, and health. The beaches, backwaters, and mangrove forests in coastal cities are particularly at risk, impacting biodiversity and tourism. The cities heavily relying on agriculture, fishing, and aquaculture operations will incur financial losses and face social challenges,” the report states.

Commenting on the report, Kochi Corporation Mayor M Anilkumar expressed his fear that the findings may come true if changes are not brought in the people’s viewpoints and lifestyles. “The corporation has already initiated measures to overcome the threats. If more proactive interventions are not made, we will have to face unexplainable challenges,” he said.

Based on a historical analysis of SLR data, the study states that an alarming rise in sea levels was noticed during the historical period in most cities and towns on the west and east coasts of India. Mumbai has experienced the maximum increase in sea levels (4.44 cm), followed by Haldia (2.726 cm), Visakhapatnam (2.381 cm), Kochi (2.213 cm), Paradip (0.717 cm), and Chennai(0.679 cm). Moreover, per year increase in sea levels was high in Mumbai (0.315 cm/year), Visakhapatnam (0.181 cm/year), Kochi (0.158 cm/year), and Paradip (0.108 cm/year)

Compared with other cities and towns (except Kanyakumari), Thiruvananthapuram is projected to have less overall inundation area (1.86% to 2.78%) under future climate scenarios. “However, the city may experience a much higher urban area subsidence (22.32%),” the report said.