In a battle fought in the shadow of the seemingly irreconciliable Orthodox-Jacobite dispute, the Manorama News-VMR Kerala Exit Poll results announced on Friday predicted that CPM's woman candidate Veena George will retain the Aranmula constituency.

The exit poll results showed that George would emerge winner with 37 per cent votes. Congress's K Sivadasan Nair, whom George beat in 2016, turned unlucky for the second time in a row with just 32.7 per cent votes.

The BJP's Biju Mathew will be third with 20.5 per cent votes. 2016 had seen a massive BJP surge, with the BJP candidate M T Ramesh improving the party's vote share from a mere 7.52 per cent to 23.48 per cent, eating mostly into the Congress candidate K Sivadasan Nair's votes.

This time, the church dispute was a matter of concern for Veena. The dominant orthodox faction, which had supported her in 2016, is miffed with the Pinarayi Vijayan government. The support of the Marthoma Syrian Church is also crucial in Aranmula. The church had stood by the LDF during the local body polls but former Chief Minister Oommen Chandy had wielded his immense clout with the church to turn things around for the UDF.

The Church support had provided the LDF some gains duringn the 2020 local body polls. Of the 13 local bodies in the Assembly segment, the UDF has an edge in five, while the LDF rules six, including the Pathanamthitta municipality.

Further, Veena George's leadership role during the 2018 floods and the COVID-19 pandemic seem to have stood her in good stead. She was even considered more accessible that Sivadasan Nair, a non-corrupt but stern personality who was perceived as elitist.