The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is likely to win 27 out of the 32 constituencies in Kasaragod, Kannur, Wayanad and Kozhikode districts, the Manorama News-VMR Kerala Assembly pre-poll survey has predicted.
The survey, which was conducted between February 15 and March 15 among 27,000 voters across the state, predicts victory for LDF in all constituencies in Kozhikode and Wayanad districts, while Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is set to lose many of its sitting seats.
On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to win the Manjeshwaram Assembly constituency in Kasaragod district, where its state chief K Surendran is contesting.
However, the survey predicts a tight contest in four constituencies – Thrikkaripur in Kasaragod, Irikkur in Kannur, Kozhikode North and Koduvally seats in Kozhikode district.
The first tranche of the Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey was out on Sunday. The four-part series – the biggest pre-poll survey in the state – predict probable winners of all the 140 seats in the assembly. The survey also reveals the likely state-level vote share of the fronts and the candidate most suited to be the CM apart from the winner in all constituencies.
Key takeaways from the survey:
1. Kasaragod
• BJP-led NDA predicted to win Manjeshwaram, while UDF is on second spot and LDF at third. BJP has fielded its state president K Surendran in Manjeshwaram.
• According to the poll survey, the LDF will win two out of the five constituencies in Kasaragod district, while UDF is set to win two seats.
• While, LDF is set to win Kanhangad and Uduma, the survey expects UDF to come up in Kasaragod and Thrikkaripur. However, the contest in Thrikkaripur would be a tight one.
• The survey also predicts the UDF to get 38.94% of votes, while the LDF and BJP likely to garner 35.84% and 24.84% of votes respectively in the district.
2. Kannur
• According to the survey, the Left front has clear dominance over its rivals in the district as the LDF is predicted to win 9 of the 11 Assembly constituencies in the district. However, the UDF has edge over the LDF in two seats, while BJP-led NDA is predicted to finish third in all constituencies except in Koothuparamba.
• LDF to receive 51.35% votes from Kannur district, while UDF and NDA to get 34.46% and 13% of votes respectively.
• Constituencies with LDF - Kannur, Dharmadom, Payyannur, Kalliasseri, Thalipparamaba, Mattannur, Thalassery, Koothuparamba and Peravoor
• Constituencies with UDF - Azheekode and Irikkur
3. Wayanad
• The Left front likely to win all the three constituencies in the district, the pre-poll survey has predicted.
• The LDF likely to win Mananthavady, Sulthan Bathery and Kalpetta seats, while UDF and NDA set to finish as second and third parties respectively in all the constituencies.
• As the survey shows a massive victory for LDF in the district, it predicts the ruling front to own 54.42% vote share in Wayanad district, while UDF to receive 32.02% of votes. BJP-led NDA likely to get only 12.41% of votes.
4. Kozhikode
• In Vadakara, where UDF is supporting Revolutionary Marxist Party candidate K K Rema, the survey predicts victory for Manayath Chandran of Loktantrik Janata Dal (LJD), an LDF ally. The panel, which discussed the pre-poll survey, however, insisted that the survey might turn wrong here as Rama's candidature was announced after the survey was concluded. RMP, which is contesting as part of a major front for the first is making an emotional campaign. K K Rama's candidature to be crucial, the panel concluded.
• LDF to make a come back in Kuttiady. CPM's local strongman K P Kunhammed Kutty likely to beat sitting MLA Parakkal Abdulla of IUML in Kuttiady. In 2016, Parakkal Abdulla beat CPM's K K Lathika with a slight majority of 1157 votes.
• LDF to retain Nadapuram, Perambra, Balussery, Elathur, Koyilandy, Kunnamangalam, Koduvally, Thiruvambady and Beypore constituencies.
• In Kozhikode North, LDF has an edge over rival fronts with 36.1% of votes, while UDF likely to get 32.2% of votes. Surprisingly, the BJP-led NDA is predicted to get 30.1% of votes.
• According to the survey, the LDF likely to win back the Kozhikode South constituency from IUML, a UDF ally.
• Though the survey expects Koduvally to side with LDF this time, the contest is going to be a tight fight. In the constituency, where Muslim League has strong roots, the LDF likely to have 48.1% of votes, while UDF to get 42.9% of votes. Meanwhile, NDA has only 7.4% of votes in the constituency.
• In total, the LDF is set to win 47.94% votes in the district, while its main rivals UDF and NDA will have 33.6% and 14.93% of votes respectively.
Key questions in the survey
• To the question what is people's opinion about the way government handled COVID-19, 25% people surveyed said best, 39% said good, 28% said average, 6% said bad and 2% said very bad.
• To the question when people think govt has a role in gold smuggling case 39% said yes.
• As to which front is better in countering corruption 41% of the voters surveyed is with 37% is with the UDF, 15 % with NDA and 7% with others.
The survey was conducted between February 15 and March 15 this year among 27,000 voters from 140 constituencies in the state. The first part was aired on Sunday. It will end on Wednesday.
The VMR group CEO maintained that the survey was an adventurous as it had to spread its teams through all the constituencies in the time of COVID-19.
Kerala goes to polls on April 6 and counting is on May 2. The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the CPM, the Congress-led opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are engaged in a multi-cornered contest.
