Ettumanoor: No part or alliance can now take for granted the poll outcome of the Ettumanoor legislative assembly constituency in Kottayam district. The entry of independent candidate Lathika Subhash here makes the electoral contest difficult for the three major political fronts.

Lathika's candidature could affect not just the United Democratic Front (UDF) as is widely expected, but even the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the April 6 assembly election.

On Monday, Lathika had quit the primary membership of the Congress, upset over the party leadership denying her a constituency to contest. She also announced she would be in the fray as an independent candidate.

A section of the Congress voters are sympathetic to Lathika, though they know the party leadership had faced immense pressure from the PJ Joseph faction to allot the seat to it.

Congress activists had vehemently protested and the tussle for Ettumanoor delayed the seat-sharing talks between Congress and Kerala Congress (Joseph).

A significant section of the traditional Congress voters are likely to vote for Lathika, who is known statewide as a committed party activist, rather than the UDF candidate Prince Lukose of the Kerala Congress (Joseph).

The LDF worry

The LDF camp is worried as a local woman candidate may have a better connect with the Ettumanoor voters than its candidate, V N Vasavan of the CPM, who is a native of Pambady in the Puthupally constituency in the same district.

The circumstances in which she had to quit the Congress and contest as an independent candidate could sway women voters as well as the impartial lot, which had mostly supported the CPM's incumbent MLA Suresh Kurup, famed for his personal charm, in the 2011 and 2016 state polls.

Suresh Kurup had scraped through with 1,801 votes in the 2011 election when the LDF snatched the UDF stronghold. Five years later he improved his winning margin to 8,899 votes and thus retained the seat. Both times he had defeated Thomas Chazhikadan of the Kerala Congress (Mani).

Where will the NDA vote go

The NDA camp is no longer upbeat about improving its electoral performance in the constituency. The local leadership of the BJP, the leading party in the alliance, is upset as the seat went to its ally BDJS.

The BJP had hoped to put up a good fight this time in Ettumanoor as it had secured several seats in the 2020 civic polls in a few villages (Kumarakom and Aymenem) coming under this assembly segment. Moreover, it has 7 councillors in the Ettumanoor Municipality.

The local BJP leaders had demanded the state party leadership to field a prominent leader in Ettumanoor if the party took over the seat from the BDJS. Or else they wanted the ally to put up a worthy candidate.

The BDJS candidate Bharat Kaiparedan was changed the other day as the initial choice was given the thumbs down by the BJP; instead N Srinivan has been named.

It is probable Lathika may garner several NDA votes too as religious and community factors come into play in terms.

In short, Lathika can shore up several votes from across the three fronts along with that of the not so politically steadfast. This may help her to sail through and come up trumps.

The 2016 poll figures

Suresh Kurup of the CPM/LDF won 53,805 votes (40.67%), whereas the runner-up Kerala Congress (Mani)/UDF candidate Thomas Chazhikadan fetched 44,906 votes (33.94%).

The BDJS/NDA candidate A G Thankappan cornered a decent 27,540 votes (20.82%), thus keeping alive the hopes of the right-wing front.

In the same poll the UDF had faced a rebel menace in the person of Josemon Mundackal who pocketed 3,774 votes.

With Lathika, a strong fourth candidate has emerged in this election. The votes she may get makes the Ettumanoor contest intense and results unpredictable.

Ettumanoor voters had once elected an independent candidate, Joseph George Podipara, in the 1987 state polls. He had humbled the two major opposing candidates from the CPM and Kerala Congress (Joseph).