The first of the three-phase COVID-delayed local body polls, which will be held on December 8, will witness a triangular contest in two districts and the traditional UDF-LDF bout in three.

Nearly 2.5 lakh candidates, more than half of them rebels and non-serious candidates, will be vying to get elected to 395 local bodies in the five south and south-eastern districts of Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha and Idukki.

The first-phase elections would be held for two Corporations, five district panchayats, 20 municipalities, 50 block panchayats and 318 grama panchayats.

Except for Thiruvananthapuram, and to a small extent in Pathanamthitta, it would largely be a two-way fight between the LDF and the UDF. The BJP, at the most, can hope to spoil the party of either of the two main fronts in some of the grama panchayats and block panchayats and municipalities in Kollam, Alappuzha and Idukki.

However, in Thiruvananthapuram, especially in the Corporation area, it would be a triangular contest. Here, though the Congress has projected itself as a serious contender, the CPM and the BJP are clearly the dominant forces.

It's BJP, CPM neck and neck

In 2015, the CPM had very nearly lost the Corporation it had ruled without break for over four decades. Individually, the CPM and the BJP had almost the same number of seats: 35 for the CPM and 34 for the BJP. However, taken as a whole, the LDF got 43 and the NDA only 35, allowing the LDF to painfully hold on to their citadel.

This year, going by the number of high-profile candidates the BJP has introduced and the kind of star campaigners they unleashed on the electorate like film star Suresh Gopi, and highly revered veterans like O Rajagopal and Kummanam Rajasekharan, there is the high possibility that the BJP could win the Corporation.

Pongala haters and the 'Rose' strategy

Nonetheless, it also remains to be seen how the voters in Thiruvananthapuram would respond to the unapologetically communal campaign of the BJP. From public platforms and loudspeakers, they broadcast the message of development. But during house-visits, BJP workers sought to induce the 'fear of the other' in Hindu voters.

BJP workers even went to the extent of telling Hindu voters in the Corporation area that they would not be allowed to offer Pongala freely if any other party captured the Corporation.

Deep internal divisions, which saw the party's candidate tumbling to an embarrassing third at the Vattiyoorkavu by-elections, could be a major stumbling block for the BJP. Further, the CPM, in what is termed a wily political strategy, has introduced dummy candidates with the 'rose' symbol, in wards where the BJP is a strong presence, hoping to mislead 'lotus' lovers.

But if the BJP wins, it would be the first time the party would come to power in a major democratic body in Kerala; the BJP had ruled Palakkad municipality despite being in a minority. The symbolic power of a BJP mayor, that too a woman, in the capital would be a huge boost for the BJP going into the Assembly polls by the end of April, 2021.

Left fiefdoms

It is the LDF that had traditionally won most of the local bodies in Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam and Alappuzha. In 2015, in Thiruvananthapuram, the LDF had won 10 out of the 11 block panchayats, all the four municipalities, the district panchayat, Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, and a majority of grama panchayats.

It was almost similar in Kollam. The LDF had 57 of the 68 gram panchayats. It had won all the 11 block panchayats. All the four municipalities (Paravur, Punalur, Karunagappally and Kottarakkara), too, went the LDF way. Like in Thiruvananthapuram, the LDF had an absolute majority in the district panchayat.

In Alappuzha, the LDF clearly had the upper hand but the UDF did give a fight. The LDF won 48 of the 72 grama panchayats, ruled 10 of the 12 block panchayats. However, the UDF had triumphed in four (Chengannur, Cherthala, Alappuzha and Haripad) of the six municipalities. Mavelikkara and Kayamkulam are with the LDF.

Where Lord Ayyappa and Mani could be deciders

Pathanamthitta, however, had demonstrated a near equal dominance, though the UDF looked to have an edge. The front shared the four municipalities: Pathanamthitta and Thiruvalla with the UDF, and Adoor and Pandalam with the LDF.

Of the 53 grama panchayats, 25 are with the LDF and 21 with the UDF. BJP has three, and interestingly, four are ruled jointly by the UDF and the LDF.

This time, the increased political standing of the BJP post Sabarimala, crucially among the decisive Christian community, and the allegiance shift of the Jose K Mani-led Kerala Congress (M) could drastically alter the results.

In Idukki, the UDF had a traditional upper hand. It rules both the municipalities (Kattappana and Thodupuzha), and six of the eight block panchayats. Yet, the LDF rules 27 of the 53 grama panchayats, and the UDF, 25. This time, the Jose K Mani factor could upset the UDF calculations.