Analysis | How 0.85% shattered Congress' hopes in Haryana

Rohtak: It was just 0.85 per cent, that was the difference of vote share between BJP and Congress in the Haryana Assembly elections held on October 5 and results of which were announced on Tuesday. Despite a close contest in vote share, the BJP outperformed Congress, winning 48 seats out of 90, securing a clear majority and a third term for the party in the state. Congress managed to win only 37, a big blow to the party's future plans in North India. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) secured 2 seats, while 3 Independents also emerged victorious. The vote share of BJP is 39.94%, Congress 39.09%, INLD 4.14%, AAP 1.79%, and JJP 0.90%.

After equally splitting Haryana's 10 Lok Sabha seats with the BJP in the general elections just a few months ago, Congress seemed poised for victory in the Assembly elections. Party leaders, confident after a decade out of power, anticipated a win. However, this confidence appeared to be misplaced, especially as talks with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) for a potential alliance failed, reportedly due to Congress’s overconfidence.

Former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, along with his son and MP Deepender Singh Hooda, led Congress's campaign, banking on well-established candidates using the "sitting-getting" formula. However, this approach backfired in key areas like Sonipat district, a traditional Hooda stronghold, where Congress won only one seat (Baroda), while losing five others. The BJP claimed victory in four out of six seats in the district.

In Bahadurgarh, another Hooda bastion in Jhajjar district, Congress candidate Rajinder Joon was defeated by an Independent who had been denied a Congress ticket under the same "sitting-getting" formula.

According to Professor Jitender Kumar, a sociologist from Maharishi Dayanand University in Rohtak, Congress’s overconfidence and lack of grassroots efforts cost them dearly. “Congress assumed they were set to return to power and became complacent. Even Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi campaigned too late, with Rahul missing out on aggressive canvassing, believing state leaders had everything under control,” Kumar observed.

He further explained that Congress leaders, including Hooda and Kumari Selja, focused more on internal power struggles, particularly over the chief minister’s position, rather than addressing key voter issues like unemployment, law and order, and farmers' concerns. Meanwhile, the BJP successfully consolidated the non-Jat votes and managed to split the Dalit votes, which traditionally favoured Congress.

BJP's advantage
One of the key factors that helped BJP was its strategy to divide the Scheduled Caste (SC) vote. The Haryana State Commission for Scheduled Castes had recommended splitting the 20% SC quota in government jobs, with half reserved for “deprived SCs,” including Balmikis, Dhanaks, Khatiks, and Mazhabi Sikhs. This move helped BJP attract Dalit voters, who make up over 19% of the state’s population.

During the Lok Sabha elections, the Dalit vote largely went to Congress, boosting their performance when combined with the Jat vote. This time, however, both voter blocs got fractured. In the Gohana assembly segment, Independent candidate Harsh Chhikara, a Jat who had previously sought a Congress ticket, garnered a significant portion of votes, leading to a split in support for Congress’s Jagvir Malik. This divide enabled BJP candidate Dr Arvind Sharma to win by consolidating the non-Jat vote.

Major defeats
In a surprising loss, INLD senior leader and outgoing MLA Abhay Singh Chautala was defeated by Congress’s Bharat Singh Beniwal by 15,000 votes. The INLD had entered into an alliance with ASP, led by Nagina MP Chandershekhar. Jananayak Janta Party’s senior leader and former deputy chief minister Dushyant Chautala also lost his Ucchana seat. Notably, Congress candidate Brijendra Singh, who recently switched from the BJP, finished second in this constituency, while BJP’s Devender Chatar Bhuj Attrri won by a mere 32 votes. Ucchana had traditionally been contested between the Chautala and Brijendra Singh families.

In Adampur, BJP’s Bhavya Bishnoi, grandson of former CM Bhajan Lal, was defeated by Congress’s Chander Prakash by 1,268 votes. This marked the first time the Bishnoi family lost the seat since the segment’s creation.

Two senior BJP Jat leaders, Capt Abhimanyu from Narnaund and Om Prakash Dhankhar from Badli, also lost their race to Congress candidates Jassi Petwad and Kuldeep Vats, respectively. Pradeep Narwal, a candidate endorsed by Priyanka Gandhi, lost the Bawani Khera (reserved) constituency to BJP’s Kapoor Singh by a margin of 21,779 votes.

Meanwhile, Vinesh Phogat, the celebrated wrestler, made a successful political debut, winning the Julana assembly seat by 6,015 votes over BJP’s Yogesh Bairagi. Initially predicted to win by a larger margin, Phogat’s lead narrowed as the BJP candidate closed the gap during the campaign's final stages.

AAP remains non-starter
The call to adopt former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal as the son of Haryana to take revenge on the BJP by voting for AAP did not click with the voters in the state. Sunita Kejriwal held dozens of rallies in Haryana, appealing to people to vote for AAP as her husband, Arvind Kejriwal, was jailed by BJP as part of a ploy to punish him for giving good schools and hospitals in Delhi. None of the candidates managed to get decent enough votes in the elections.

Reacting to the results, former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda said they were taken by surprise by the election results and not only the Congress party but also BJP also was surprised. On the question of factionalism in the party as the reason for the loss, Hooda said the party would surely analyse the result later, and leaders may have differences, but whether it worked against the party is not believable. He said the party has lost many seats by a slender margin, and they have also received complaints from many candidates, so the party would look into the matter.

Meanwhile, Congress senior leader Kumari Selja said she was shocked to hear the results as Congress was sure to win this time. "I can't say what went wrong and how BJP won despite being so unpopular among the people. A lot of analysis and work needs to be done to understand this phenomenon", she added.