Raipur: In the high-stakes battle of the Chhattisgarh assembly elections, the ruling Congress seems to have an advantage, while the main opposition BJP is grappling with the challenge of countering the deluge of campaign promises from the grand old party.
The only source of intrigue lies in the numerous smaller parties that have entered the race, introducing the possibility of a vote split that could either make or break the fortunes of the major players in this traditionally bipolar state.
The ruling Congress, led by Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel, has been making one or two populist announcements almost every day, long before releasing its election manifesto. Right from Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge to Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi, and the chief minister himself, they have rolled out a series of promises at each of their election meetings.
In addition to promising a caste census, 10 lakh houses for the poor, waiving all farm loans, and eventually raising the price of paddy to Rs 3,000 per quintal for paddy procured under MSP, Rs 4,000 per standard bag for beedi leaves collected by tribals from the forests, and free education from "KG to PG" in all government institutions, they continue to promise to purchase cow dung and cow urine. More populist schemes are expected in the election manifesto.
The BJP is scheduled to release its manifesto on Friday, and it is likely to include measures to counter the Congress's trump card of raising the price of paddy procured at the support price from farmers. In the 2018 elections, Congress swept the polls with its promise to provide Rs 2,500 per quintal by paying the difference of MSP. Over 25 lakh registered paddy cultivators have benefited from this 'agriculture input subsidy,' which they received directly into their accounts every year for the last five years. Additionally, farmers who cultivate other crops received an agriculture input subsidy of Rs 9,000 per acre, while MSP on millets and minor forest produce were also increased.
Congress won the 2018 elections with a massive majority of 68 seats in the 90-member assembly, while BJP could secure only 15 seats. Five seats were won by Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (J), floated by former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi, and two by the BSP. Later, Congress's strength rose to 71 after it won by-elections necessitated by the deaths of three opposition legislators.
Faced with a daunting task, the BJP fielded a majority of its senior leaders, including union ministers, a couple of MPs, and former ministers, apparently hoping for a higher strike rate compared to newcomers. Three-time chief minister Raman Singh, who was unsure of his role until the last minute, was also fielded from his constituency, Rajnandgaon, where he is pitted against Girish Dewangan (Congress). Besides, the BJP has introduced 43 new faces, aiming to capitalize on the anti-incumbency sentiment against sitting legislators in many constituencies.
Even during the undivided Madhya Pradesh, Congress, on many occasions, formed its government with the support of Congress legislators from the Chhattisgarh region. Political analysts here point out that Chhattisgarh has a "Congress DNA," but the BJP came to power for the first time in 2003 due to the split of votes caused by veteran leader V. C. Shukla joining NCP and fielding its candidates in all the constituencies. In the two subsequent elections in 2008 and 2013, the split of votes by smaller parties and internal strife in the Congress contributed to the BJP's victory. However, in 2018, the Congress wave was so significant that smaller parties could not make a dent in its prospects.
After the death of former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi, his party JCC (J) struggled for a while, and three of its legislators drifted away from the party. Later, one of them passed away, while the other two remained aloof from the party. The only MLA left was Dr. Renu Jogi, the wife of the former chief minister. There were even talks about its possible merger with the Congress, but it did not materialize after Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel allegedly stalled the move.
Now, the JCC (J) has taken the lead and fielded its candidates in 84 constituencies, strategically selecting its candidates, including those who were denied a ticket by the Congress. Besides, former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi's son, Amit Jogi, in a surprise move, filed his nomination papers to contest against Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel in his constituency, Patan, forcing a triangular contest. The BJP has fielded the Chief Minister's nephew and old rival Vijay Baghel, a sitting MP, from Patan.
The Aam Aadmi Party has also fielded its candidates in the majority of the constituencies, while Chhattisgarh Sarva Adivasi Samaj, which focuses on tribal issues, has entered the fray in 29 constituencies. Another party of tribals, Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP), and the BSP alliance are also testing their electoral fortunes in more than 85 constituencies.
Congress, which had won all 26 seats in the last elections in tribal Bastar in the south and Surguja in the north, may find it tough to retain all the seats this time due to various factors such as polarization caused by the attack on tribal Christians in Bastar, local anti-incumbency against sitting MLAs, and other issues. In the central plains, which account for 64 seats, there is a scramble for OBC votes, particularly those belonging to the dominant Sahu community. BJP has fielded 11 Sahu candidates, followed by Congress with nine.
However, the welfare of farmers, paddy prices, and loan waivers are expected to remain dominant factors in the central plains. While Congress has dropped 22 of its MLAs and re-nominated the majority of others, the BJP has also increased its efforts to challenge Congress with constituency-level strategies.
In the Saja constituency, the BJP has fielded Ishwar Sahu, a villager whose son was killed in a recent communal clash, to take on Congress heavyweight and minister Ravindra Choubey. Assam Chief Minister Hemanta Biswa Sharma was among the BJP leaders who canvassed support for him. Similarly, Forest Minister Mohammad Akbar is facing BJP's Vijay Sharma, who was earlier arrested in connection with communal tensions in the Kawardha constituency. Caste equations and other factors were also taken into consideration when deciding on the candidates.
All 13 ministers and the state Congress chief are testing their fortunes, with at least five of them facing a tough challenge in their constituencies.
