Analysis | BJP walks a tight rope in Assam over CAA, rest of Northeast are a happy lot

The Citizenship Amendment Bill 2016 put the entire Northeast on the boil in 2018 when the central government was moving the bill in the Rajya Sabha after passing it in Lok Sabha. Entire Northeast rose up in anger and forced the government to shelve the plan to legislate the bill.

The Narendra Modi government learned a big lesson out of it. It knows Northeast is not like Kashmir. The entire region has for decades been having Chinese influence. The Chinese intelligence agency is very much active in entire Northeast, which senior military officers of the eastern command have agreed to.

Modi, thus, looked at entire Northeast through the prism of its foreign policy unlike Kashmir where it took the region head on vowing to launch a war with Pakistan. Such an aggressive idea towards Northeast would be unthinkable as it would mean fighting against China.

The citizenship amendment bill was drafted looking at the remedies to the Hindu community who would be left out in the ongoing NRC process in Assam. However, the government included Pakistan and Afghanistan as well as large number of Sindhis, Sikhs, Hindus, Buddhists and few Christians came to India from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh after 1971.

Assam protests in 2018

Assam rose in anger because it was a violation of Assam accord. Assam accord says foreigners—irrespective of their caste, creed and religion—would be traced and be deported. Not only Assam, Manipur, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Mizoram also rose in huge anger protesting the accommodation of Hindus in Northeast in 2018. If looked closely, it was Hindu dominated Assam, Manipur and Tripura which were more vocal than the Christian dominated Meghalaya, Nagaland and Mizoram in blocking the bill. That surprised the central government and RSS even. The RSS, which was active for years in Northeast to bring Indianness in the region, was stunned seeing the repercussion of the bill.

The protests through out 2018 forced the union government to postpone its plan. Assom Gana Parisad (AGP), an ally of BJP, also then snapped its ties with BJP and decided to fight the panchyat election alone in Assam. But to many people’s utter surprise, BJP won the panchayat election with huge margin. In Arunachal Pradesh, it was back to power with thumping majority. As it withdrew the bill, the allies like Mizo National Front (MNF), NDPP of Nephu Rio remained its allies and all fought the election together in 2019 Lok Sabha election. NDA won 18 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats in Northeast making the entire Citizenship Amendment Bill, 2016 a forgotten past.

Appeasing other NE states through new act

With the passing of the bill in both the houses of the parliament last week, a part of Northeast rose in anger. The protests this time was limited to Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura because Modi’s new home minister Amit Shah made a tweak in the bill which was enacted and received ascent of president of India and was made an act. Shah looked at the violence prone states like Manipur, Nagaland, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh. While Manipur and Nagaland are still insurgency prone, Mizoram and Meghalaya has a gory past of insurgency.

Indian army and research and analysis wing of government of India reported to home minister that all the insurgent agencies—about 36 in numbers—are behind the movement against the Citizenship Amendment Act like last year. And all these groups were formed many decades back with backing and training of Chinese PLA.

All these states, except Manipur and Meghalaya, have ILP where if one has to settle need permission of the state government. Shah, in a major shift of policy, extended ILP to Manipur and ruled that CAA would not be applicable to states having ILP. He is on his way to give ILP status to some part of Meghalaya even. A bill of the assembly concerning to this was awaited the node of governor Tathagata Roy, who took time to sign the bill. But Modi government replaced Roy with Nagaland governor R N Ravi who was given additional charge of the Meghalaya.

Shah wanted to douse any Chinese impact into the inside movement of Northeast of India. The home minister also said that the bill would have no impact in Sixth schedule areas of Northeast which involves many parts of Assam and Tripura as well.

However, the home minister refused to give much waiver to large part of Assam as the recent NRC, unofficial sources said, have more Hindus excluded than the Muslim. Around 19 lakh people have been excluded from the citizenship list of Assam and state government rejected the list despite it was monitored by the Supreme Court of India.

If sources are to be believed then around 11 lakh Hindus are out of the citizenship list and both Assam government and central government enjoyed popular support of the people in the past elections. In 2019, the party was given nine out of 14 seats in Lok Sabha by the state. It is therefore bound to give “justice” to large number of Hindus of the state. If that was not done, in 2021, chances of BJP coming to power will be diminished.

What made the situation urgent for BJP was the process of NRC was simultaneously going on with electoral roll review of the state. Around 40 lakh people, who were doubted as the citizens of India settled in Assam, did not vote in 2019 Lok Sabha election. Needless to say eighty percent of them were Muslims and the process of making doubtful voters (called as D-voters) are still going on. Anyone who was accused as a foreigner and case against that person lodged in foreigners tribunal his or her name has been struck off from the voters’ list. As a result of that more than 25 Lakh Muslims could not vote in 2019 election in Assam which made easier for BJP to win election in panchayat and Lok Sabha election.

But now with the present NRC where fate of more Hindus remain uncertain than Muslims, the citizenship amendment act became mandatory for the ruling party in Assam and in the state. Assam has around 1.3 cr Muslim population and in that case if around 11 lakhs Hindus remain out of the voters list, chances of a BJP win in 2021 would be very bleak. This is because Sarbananda Sonowal government had come to power in 2016 banking on huge Videshi Hatao (drive out foreigners) slogan and implementation of Assam accord. With NRC it has by and large been able to implement Assam accord but not fully as the citizenship amendment bill was not at all part of the Assam accord. And Assam Hindus largely voted in favour of Congress in the past.

With CAA, BJP walks a tight rope. It would largely garner support for the party in upper Assam which are largely Bengali dominated. But in Brahmmaputra valley there is a doubt as civil society is up in ante.

One of the major support base of the BJP in 2016 was AASU (All Assam Students Union) in which present Assam chief minister was a big leader. Now AASU is also protesting.

“Come what may, we will not accept CAA. This is a complete violation of Assam accord,” said AASU mentor, Sommujjal Bhattacharya.

It’s ally AGP also turned grumpy as it has also gone to Supreme Court against the act. However AGP did not come out of the government like in the past.

The future days would be crucial how BJP would deal with Brahammaputra valley which has around forty percent of the total assembly seats. If it manages to douse the fire in the valley, it would be smooth sailing for BJP in 2016. Otherwise it would be a tough call, though chief minister is known as a development man of Assam with his huge infrastructure boosting implementation in last three years.