Though viewed as a sure seat for the CPM and the Left Democratic Front in Kerala, Kasaragod has many political undercurrents. If Kallyasseri, Payyannur and Thrikkaripur assembly segments are red bastions, Kanhangad and Uduma have pockets of considerable Congress influence. Muslim League competes with the BJP for dominance in the northern segments of Manjeswaram and Kasaragod.
The Congress-led United Democratic Front hopes to end the LDF’s 30-year-old monopoly of the constituency through its warhorse Rajmohan Unnithan. The opposition claims that the CPM has been forced to capitulate to a popular backlash against the twin murders at Periya. Unnithan, however, has a formidable rival in K P Satheesh Chandran, a former MLA with an unblemished track record.
The BJP has opted to field Ravisha Thantri as its candidate. The party expects to gain as many votes as possible and perhaps win another assembly seat in the Manjeswaram assembly byelection to be held later.
The Kasaragod Lok Sabha constituency was formed in 1957, in time for the second general election. Communist leader A K Gopalan represented the constituency in the Lok Sabha for three consecutive terms. In 1971, CPM strongman E K Nayanar was trounced by Ramachandran Kadannappally of the Congress. Kadannappally was elected in 1977 as well.
The CPM struck back in 1980 through M Ramanna Rai, who beat O Rajagopal of the Janata Party, an amalgam formed by several parties including the Jan Sangh, the BJP’s forerunner.
In 1984, the Congress managed to win back the seat thanks to a countrywide sympathy wave created by the assassination of prime minister Indira Gandhi. I Rama Rai beat CPM’s E Balanandan.
Ramanna Rai won the seat back for the CPM in 1989, starting unbroken representation by the CPM. Ramanna Rai won for another term in 1991. T Govindan was elected in 1996, 1998 and 1999 and P Karunakaran was elected in 2004, 2009 and 2014.
Satheesh Chandran could be a worthy successor to Karunakaran thanks to his image as an accessible leader. He has served as the party chief in the district three times and represented Thrikkaripur in the Kerala Legislative Assembly two times. Currently, he is the convener of the ruling alliance in the district.
Unnithan’s wild-card entry was not without its problems. The UDF workers who were expecting KPCC member Subbayya Rai to be the candidate were not amused. The state leadership has prevailed to iron out the differences.
The Congress expects Unnithan to fan the popular sentiments with his fiery speeches on the twin murders of Periya. He has a reputation for not bucking down under pressure.
The BJP has no hopes of winning the parliamentary seat. For the party, the election is a trial run for the later assembly byelection to the Manjeswaram constituency, which it lost by a mere 89 votes in 2016. BJP candidate Ravisha Thantri, a priest associated with several temples in Kerala and Karnataka, is known for his speeches expounding hardline Hindutva. A member of the BJP state committee, Thanthri finished second in the Kasaragod assembly segment in 2016.
Though the CPM maintains that it was totally in the dark over the Periya murders attributed to a former party member, the claim has not been taken at face value.
The LDF has to draw as many CPM votes from the areas in the Kannur district and the Kannada votes from the border areas to ensure victory. The Congress will also tap into the Kannada votes in the Kasaragod and Manjeswaram assembly segments.
Kasaragod and Manjeswaram are solid support bases of the Muslim League, a Congress ally. The UDF also expects to improve its tally in the Uduma and Kanhangad segments. Payyannur and Kaliasseri in the Kannur district are formidable red bastions.
The UDF alleges that Karunakaran has not performed well as an MP when it comes to the misery of endosulfan victims and the development of railway and the health sectors. The consistent slide in his majority over three elections is seen as a sign of change.
Karunakaran won by a margin of more than 1 lakh votes in 2004. His lead narrowed to 6,921 votes in 2014. However, the LDF has a clear lead of 72,539 votes when votes from the assembly segments are added up as of 2016.
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