Bihar Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi addresses at a function of Mahadalit Sammelan and foundation lay stone of Additional Primary Health in Khagaria, Bihar on Friday. PTIEven though the fight in Bihar is between Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi and party boss Nitish Kumar, everyone is looking at how Narendra Modi will handle the crisis in Bihar both constitutionally and politically. The Janata Dal(United) is a badly fractured house with Nitish Kumar trying to make a comeback as chief minister, and Manjhi refusing to vacate the chair, given to him by Nitish just eight months ago. The party ministers, MLAs and cadres are divided.
Nitish has been elected as leader of the legislature party by the official faction, while Manjhi says he will face the Assembly on February 20. The embattled chief minister met Modi and requested for support from BJP, which has a good presence in the assembly. The ball is in the court of Governor Kailashnath Tripathi, for whom Bihar is an additional charge. Tripathi, a BJP veteran was the speaker of Uttar Pradesh assembly when BJP's Kalyan Singh was Chief Minister.
But Tripathi will not make any moves without approval from Modi and home minister Rajnath Singh. Constitutionally, Modi could advise Tripathi to go by the test on the floor of the assembly so that whoever has the majority will govern Bihar for the next ten months, as the elections are due this year end. The Prime Minister intensely dislikes Nitish Kumar, who had always criticised Modi, and did not allow Modi to campaign in Bihar for the BJP-Janata Dal(U) alliance in last assembly elections. Nitish had also broken the alliance when Modi was declared the saffron party's prime ministerial candidate. Of course, Modi campaigned extensively for Lok Sabha elections, and Nitish was made to eat the humble pie. Following his resignation on moral grounds, Nitish has been trying to bring the factions of the erstwhile Janata Dal into one political entity, and has made up with his old enemy Lalu Prasad in Bihar.
The Bihar Raj Bhavan was once in serious trouble when UPA appointed governor Buta Singh did not give Nitish Kumar an opportunity to become chief minister of a hung house, even though Nitish claimed he had the numbers in the assembly. Then president APJ Abdul Kalam who was in Russia had signed the dissolution of the Assembly on the basis of Buta Singh's recommendation, which was endorsed by Manmohan Singh cabinet. The supreme court had passed strictures against Buta Singh, and he was no more the governor.
Politically Modi has to see whether it is prudent to try and prop up Manjhi with outside support of Manjhi, or bring him down. If Manjhi is propped up, the BJP could become unpopular on the ground, though it would prevent Nitish Kumar coming back to power. The other adventurous option is to ensure there is confusion on who has the majority and go for president's rule. It would lead to early elections, where BJP can argue that it is a principled opposition party and the voters cannot trust the divisive ways of Janata Dal(United). Ideal situation for BJP morally would be when both Manjhi and Nitish fail to show majority in the assembly. Then BJP can say legitimately that the Janata Dal(United) despite support of Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress, has collapsed like a house of cards, and BJP is the only stable alternative.
The political discussion of 2015 will depend on how Manjhi and Nitish fare against other, but also on how BJP handles the Bihar situation.
Tailpiece: Modi is still going slow on appointments. Apart from half a dozen Raj Bhavans which are under additional charge, the government has not moved forward on appointment of chief vigilance commissioner or the Lokpal, both of whom are needed for fight against government corruption.
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