The Pathankot terror attack could be viewed as an effort by the Pak militants to derail the efforts by India and Pakistan to resume structured talks to counter cross-border terrorism.
However, the Modi government has emphasised its ‘steadfast commitment’ to the resumption of dialogue between the two countries. Otherwise, the Prime Minister’s surprise stopover in Lahore and the External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj's visit to Islamabad as well as Modi’s meeting with his Pakistan counterpart Nawaz Sharif would turn out to be futile exercises. It would also send out a wrong message that the governments let some fringe groups to mar the peace process.
Last year, the NDA government had cancelled the foreign secretary level talks over Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit’s meeting with Hurriyat leaders.
Though the suspicious identities have fuelled speculations that the attacks could not have happened without the connivance of the Pak government, the NDA government is not expected to react in a manner that would put the peace talks in jeopardy.
Pakistan's elected civilian government and the military have always been at loggerheads over the holding talks with India. However, the present prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s efforts to build a durable relationship with its neighbour are with the support of the country’s military commanders.
Even as it is hard to believe that the Pathankot attack was carried out with the blessings of the Pak military, we cannot rule out the involvement of the Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in the devastating strike on the air base.
The Pakistan-based terrorist groups have expressed strong opposition to the politics of India's policy towards Afghanistan. India’s decision to provide military assistance including four attack helicopters and artillery guns to the strife-torn country has also invited the wrath of the terror outfits. Furthermore, India’s move to fund development projects in Afghanistan is also viewed suspiciously by them.
The Pathankot incident was the third such attack carried out by the terrorists infiltrating into Indian territory through the borders of Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab over a span of three months.
The attack resembled raids in Udhampur in Jammu and Kashmir and in Punjab’s Gurdaspur in which the terrorists targeted military bases and police outposts on the border areas.
One of the biggest challenges confronting the Narendra Modi government is articulating a coherent road map for the country’s foreign policy towards Pakistan. However, apart from Modi’s meeting with Sharif, the government could not evolve dynamic and innovative approaches to diplomacy and make any progress on this front.
Though it was a policy of denial, Dr. Manmohan Singh, during his 10-year reign, had a policy approach that was clear and stable. Once he had even gone a step further taking a dig at the multiple power centres in Pakistan. “With whom should I hold talks in Pakistan; the government, military, ISI or the terrorists? was the rhetorical question raised by Singh.
The two neighbours had sought to improve their long-strained relations several times in the past. One among them was the bold initiative by Atal Bihari Vajpayee to conduct a historic bus journey to Lahore in 1999.
However, Vajpayee’s gesture failed to achieve the desired results as the Pak troops entered Kashmir and ignited the Kargil war, betraying both the governments.
The Modi government is once again trying to make a new beginning to turn ties with Pakistan. It cannot be predicted now how successful it will be, but if the efforts fails it would be a big setback for both countries.
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