Hearken, comrades! Perception is the new reality in Kerala

CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury is preoccupied with reversing the fortunes of his West Bengal unit, while investing very little time in the Kerala unit except meddling with its affairs – who should lead the campaign and who all should contest and so on.

He has displayed the smarts to hoodwink the state leadership that the electoral pact between the party and the Congress in West Bengal will be confined to a mere “understanding”, and not a full-fledged alliance, even though that is what it is. His high-IQ cleverness notwithstanding, Yechury hasn’t bothered so far to examine the nuances of the election scenario in Kerala, perhaps because there is a wave in favour of the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF).

The party general secretary is justified in giving top priority for the organisational and electoral machinery of the CPM in West Bengal, a state where the Left’s Big Brother has ruled for a straight 34 years, only to bite the dust, perhaps literally, following the 2011 assembly elections. The Lok Sabha results of 2014 only confirm their worst fears: that the Left was in a much more piteous situation in the eastern state than expected. Yechury has grasped the gravity of the problem and has taken into account the CPM’s limitations there before pitching his party to overcome odds in the six-phased polls spread across April and May.

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Now, with Yechury’s cerebral prowess entirely devoted to West Bengal, there are a few drawbacks that the CPM leaders of Kerala had better acknowledge before they proceed to face the polls on May 16. One, their politics of violence is deeply resented, especially in the south of Kerala.

Historian Rajan Gurukal has often said that the perception that Kannur, in northern Kerala, is the hotbed of political violence is entirely wrong, and that the proverbial cap on that count should be worn by a few southern districts. Whatever the truth may be, it is perceptions that matter more, especially when there has been enough and more of stereotyping of Kannur as some kind of Sicily where vendetta politics are allegedly the rule rather than an exception.

The Kadathanadan lore and the ballads of chekavars long dead in bloody, pointless battles meant to protect the honour of princes overfrivolous issues are often raked up to buttress the roots of contemporary aggression and politics of murder.

Not surprisingly, the cloak-and-dagger intrigue (or lack of it) that has gone on to save Kannur district secretary P. Jayarajan from CBI custody feigning deteriorating health has attracted more mirth than sympathy – and also indignation that a man who is said to have been associated with several cases of political violence is allowed to play hide and seek. Jayarajan’s contribution to reinforcing the impression among voters that the CPM is a violent entity -- albeit locally in parts of Kannur – is as legendary as his misuse of the organizational upper hand of the Kannur district unit to settle what even insiders say are personal scores. Don’t be mistaken: he himself is a victim of the murderous games that the RSS plays in the district. And social media onslaught, especially by North Indian paid trolls fed on half-baked information, on Kannur being a Golgotha for RSS cadres is fatuous. Here’s the math: in the so-called CPM stronghold of Kannur, more CPM workers have died in the past 10 years than that of any other outfit. Of 41 murders, 19 of them belonged to the CPM, 17 RSS, 2 PFI and 3 IUML.

True, in the game of reality vs perception, it is the latter that seems to matter more, especially in elections. Well-known election strategist Prashant Kishor had told me after the 2014 elections that truth was less crucial in a campaign and had asked me if I ever thought Modi’s Gujarat development claims were true. It is the hype that worked wonders, he had told me.

I wish Kerala’s CPM leaders learn a lesson or two from the 2014 elections that catapulted Modi to a stunning win. Less is more, that is the key. With Yechury surprising political observers with what they never thought was his forte – pre-election hype and hoopla – and also behaving more like the West Bengal party chief than a national chief, it is now left to the state’s leaders to analyse what suits them best in pulling in votes from across the spectrum.

Agreed, the LDF has a greater chance in a state that has often seen opposing fronts coming to power on rotation. It is also blessed with a huge anti-incumbency wave against the corruption-bruised Oommen Chandy government. But another area where the Left is lacking, as regards building an image, is in its perceived stand on liquor policy. According to various surveys, including the one by a TV channel managed by the party, the fine print of the survey was clear and categorical: that being seen as close to liquor barons may cost the LDF a few seats, if not more, over the choices that women may make.

In central Kerala, the impact could be more than the front may have imagined, and northern or southern districts may follow suit. Which means the Left will have to at least do some posturing and be seen as not accommodative of the interests of the liquor lobby in the state. One shouldn’t forget that Chandy didn’t impose the existing liquor policy that effectively puts a partial ban on sale of liquor by bar owners in the state because he was convinced that was the best policy for the finances of the state. Historically, any efforts at partial liquor ban have earned tremendous approval from a huge chunk of voters in the state where women outnumber men – it doesn’t matter whether that helps win an election, but it definitely acts as a force multiplier. Put simply, calling a spade a spade on liquor policy wouldn’t offer any edge in polls. On the other hand, it is a disadvantage.

Where the much-tainted UDF still scores points above the LDF is on the development question. The Left’s leaders expect voters to see through the Congress-led government’s knee-jerk measures to put their stamp on new projects, including the Kannur airport, SmartCity, Kochi Metro, highways and on on. The LDF, by boycotting functions held to inaugurate them, seems to have incurred the displeasure of the state’s voters who may naturally assume such demeanours to signal what it has in mind about development in the state.

The CPM seems to have lost the perceptional advantage it may have acquired following its ‘development conclave’ held in January – a departure of sorts for a party that has invariably opposed neo-liberal policies – in which it had backed the creation of new industrial corridors and a high-speed rail projects in the state, among others. The move was meant to project CPM as a development-friendly party and party heavyweight Pinarayi Vijayan as a potential modernizer in a state starved of big projects that could create more jobs for its highly skilled work force that migrates in hordes every year.

The LDF seems to be emboldened by the fact that its biggest asset and crowd puller, V.S. Achuthanandan will also be in the fray. His abilities to attract votes from across the state, and especially in central and southern Kerala, and to hold sway over the masses -- who tend to adore him irrespective of their political sympathies -- has never been disputed. Yet, LDF leaders, with the probable exception of VS, don’t seem to have weighed the impact of pro-Hindutva sentiments – that are gaining momentum in the state, as evident from a recent bypoll and local bodies elections – could have in at least a few districts such as Kasaragod and Thiruvananthapuram besides pockets like Chengannur, Aaranmula and Thiruvalla.

The greater appeal in the state for hyper-nationalism, which has been gaining in currency ever since Modi came to power in 2014, means that the BJP has been able to cobble up an alliance with a party that claims to represent the Ezhavas, the single biggest Hindu caste constituent in the state. The Muslim-Christian domination in the incumbent UDF government has generated much ill will – and had been zealously used by various groups to suggest that Hindus are short-changed by the Chandy government, which, thanks to its slender margin of victory in terms of seats, has yielded repeatedly to demands from the Muslim League, a powerful ally.

All this may not yet throw up a hung assembly, given that the Left is leaving no stones unturned in pursuing new friends, among them Christian outfits and heads of some denominations, much to the anguish of their own party men and sympathisers. Without doubt, the coming elections to the 140-member would most likely result in a realignment of political affiliations of various religious communities and caste groups. Given that sustaining a campaign over such a long period in what is expected to be a gruelling summer will get tougher and tougher, this year’s polls will also test the political stamina of the key contenders. Which means it isn’t just the results, but the whole process of a protracted -- more-than-two-months-long -- and bitter combat that will be interesting to watch.

Ullekh NP is executive editor, Open Magazine, and author of War Room: The People, Tactics and Technology behind Narendra Modi's 2014 Win.

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