In Gujarat, what you see from outside is far from reality

The Gujarat election is the most exciting so far after the 2013 Delhi polls. At that time, everyone wanted to know how a fledgling Aam Aadmi Party would do at the hustings. In all elections since, there were little doubts about who would come victorious. Even if there were questions, those were on the number of seats.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, everyone knew that the Congress would lose power. Three key anti-incumbency factors worked that time — against the UPA government that was in power for 10 years, against the Congress that headed the coalition and against Rahul Gandhi who led the Congress campaign. The result was anybody’s guess.

Elections to Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Haryana that were held around the parliamentary polls were highly predictable. As expected, anti-incumbency sentiment ensured defeat of the incumbent regimes.

In the next round of elections, the one that brought at least some excitement was again in Delhi, in 2015. But even then, there weren’t much doubts about who would rule Delhi. The extensive groundwork that the AAP conducted in the capital after its weeks-old government quit, and the goodwill it thus generated, had made us believe that the party would overcome the Modi effect.

Bihar and hearsay

Then came Bihar. The competition was tough, but most expected the BJP to win. Therefore, the election didn’t trigger any edge-of-the-seat excitement, like that is now in Gujarat.

Of course, the situation turned around as the vote counting started. All the predictions and expectations went wrong. In Bihar, it was post-election excitement.

Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu and Mamata Banerjee in Bengal were foregone conclusions. In Jammu & Kashmir, the anti-incumbency factor working against Omar Abdullah and the results in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand were anybody’s guess. In Punjab, the consensus was always for a Congress victory. Results from the Northeast and Goa didn’t matter much. In Himachal Pradesh, even if the BJP wins all seats, it won’t surprise anyone since the performance of the current regime is that horrendous.

BJP at the last level

The Gujarat election is happening in this unexciting, highly predictable background. From the experience gained while traveling across the state during an election time, I can say for sure that the Congress lacked any credible party organization there. For the party, it’s just a few leaders and their pocket boroughs. But that said, it always had a solid vote base. In every election, the BJP creates a feeling that it could win all the seats. But that won’t be the case when the results come. During the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, when I traveled across Gujarat, I expected the BJP to win 22-24 of the 26 seats. But the party could manage only 14, with the Congress getting the remaining 12. What you see from the outside is not the reality in Gujarat.

In 2002, when the BJP won 127 of the 182 assembly seats riding the Hindutva wave, its vote share increased to 49.85%. But then the Congresses’ share too rose, to 39.45%. (That is natural when it is essentially a face-off between two parties.)

Since then, the BJP’s vote share has shrunk in every election — be it Lok Sabha, assembly or local body — until 2014. The situation was different in the last Lok Sabha polls. With Narendra Modi being the prime ministerial candidate, what mattered was the Gujarati pride. The downtrend resumed after that election — its percentage of votes dropped in the next local body polls.

In Gujarat, the BJP has been on a downhill drive for 10 to 15 years now. But that had not taken it to a level where it would lose an election, or rather the Congress had failed to turn it in its favor. Probably, the downtrend has now taken the BJP to its lowest level of comfort. That is perhaps the reason for the party to be nervous. Everyone has seen how frantic it was during campaigning.

But will the Congress be able to overcome a BJP that has gone unusually defensive? If it were Kerala, under these circumstances, we could have easily predicted a sweep for the Congress.

Anti-incumbency sentiment accumulated over 22 years, caste considerations, and discontent in every field from business to agriculture and among youth, everything that an opposition party needs to win an election was there in Gujarat. And, they have a solid vote base of 40% stand on. It’s all in favor of the Congress.

But it’s Gujarat, not Kerala.

We know that the situation is different in Gujarat. When “our own” Prime Minister is ruling the country, every middle-class Gujarati would be thinking how could he allow someone else to win the state. Another factor is whether the business community could consider the Congress and Rahul Gandhi as a credible alternative. There may be a concern among the majority community about the Congress and the caste-based organizations with it coming to power. And, there could also be a caste-based polarization against those who are with the Congress. Religion is always a major political issue in Gujarat — the society is divided vertically over religion. That is the reason the BJP stirred up stupid issues such Pakistan’s interference and Ahmed Patel for Congress chief minister. These could weigh on Congress’ prospects in what otherwise could have been a cakewalk for it.

Now about exit-poll results. In Bihar, most had predicted that the BJP would rule, but that didn’t come true. In Gujarat, there is a need to take the fear factor into account. A Gujarati would think twice before publicly saying that he voted against the BJP. My gut feeling in this backdrop is that the Congress would come ahead this time.

Counting the numbers

When considering the polling percentage in Gujarat, what should be looked at is the 2014 Lok Sabha performance and not of 2012 assembly polls. Because, what took place in Gujarat just now was a Modi-Rahul battle. It should be viewed from a national perspective.

In the first phase of voting, polling rose in rural Gujarat compared with that in 2014. It increased marginally in semi-urban areas and was nearly flat in cities. The rural constituencies traditionally back the Congress. Increased voting there suggests that the people voted eagerly for the Congress. Voting rose in semi-urban areas as well where the Congress has an upper hand. If people in the BJP-dominated urban seats didn’t came out enthusiastically to vote, that suggests that they aren’t happy with the ruling party. But they may not have any intention to pull the BJP down and hand power over to the Congress. So, they didn’t go out in more numbers to vote. But still, this should work overall in favor of the Congress.

In the second phase, indications are of an increase in voting. If the voting percentage rose in Patel-dominated areas that traditionally stood with the BJP, this time it may not be something for the ruling party to rejoice. In seats with large OBC vote base, the Alpesh Thakor factor may help the Congress. The rural Gujarat is, of course, with the Congress.

If all these factors are taken into account, and if these work together, the Congress should win Gujarat. My final seat prediction is: Congress 95-105. Now, #FingersCrossed and wait for #18DEC..!