Afghanistan's surprise win over Australia in Super Eight has thrown wide open Group 1 of the T20 World Cup. An Australian win would have taken both them and India into the semifinals.
Australia meet India in a potentially must-win tie on Monday (8 pm IST), while the Afghans clash with Bangladesh (Tuesday 6 am) in their final Super Eight match. Here is a look at the qualification scenario heading into the final round.
India sit pretty with two wins from as many games. They have a net run-rate (NRR) of +2.425. Australia are in second spot with a win and a loss. Afghanistan too have two points from two matches, but are in third place on NRR.
Australia have a NRR of 0.223 as compared to Afghanistan's -0.65. Bangladesh are at the bottom following two successive losses and are yet to open their account.
India
India are all but assured of a place in the semifinals. A no result or a win over Australia would result in India go through as group toppers. Even a loss on Monday is unlikely to affect their chances unless both Australia and Afghanistan secure massive wins in their final matches.
Australia will need to beat India by 41 runs to go past them on NRR, while Afghanistan will have to beat Bangladesh by at least 83 runs.
Australia and Afghanistan
Australia have to score a win over India and then expect Afghanistan to lose or win narrowly against Bangladesh. The Afghans have an advantage since they play last and will know the exact position. If Australia lose to India, Rashid Khan's men need to just win against Bangladesh.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh have a slim chance if both Australia and Afghanistan suffer big losses. In that case, Australia, Bangladesh and Afghanistan will finish with two points and NRR will decide who joins India in the semifinals.
Bangladesh will have to win by 31 runs for their NRR to edge past Afghanistan's, but they will also need Australia to lose by 55 runs, to end up second in the group.
