Hectic parleys and hard bargains are on the cards as the UDF, LDF and the BJP camps are set to begin talks on seat sharing for the forthcoming assembly elections.
While the ruling UDF is grappling with various issues within the front, the challenges faced by the opposition LDF are mostly created by ‘external’ factors. What bothers the BJP is the uncertainty over partners and alliance.
Reaching a seat-sharing agreement amicably with their respective partners is the main hurdle to clear for each front.
Kerala Congress (M) leaders K.M. Mani and P.J. Joseph, who set the tone for post-poll bargaining, are however, standing united to push hard to get a considerable number of seats in the alliance.
There are many other issues that give headaches to the UDF leadership. Seats need to be allotted to the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), which joined the UDF ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, while the Janata Dal (United) has expressed its desire to get more seats to contest.
Small partners such as the Kerala Congress (Jacob) have also upped their stake and demanded more seats than they were allotted in the previous elections.
Among the alliance partners, Muslim League is the only party which has not raised any demands so far.
As far as the LDF is concerned, there are no such issues within the front comprising six parties. However, Pinarayi VIjayan and Kodiyeri Balakrishnan have enough reason to worry if they take a look at the ten or more political parties that have pledged allegiance to the LDF.
The parties that nurse the hope of getting seats include the Kerala Congress (B) led by R. Balakrishna Pillai, one of the founder members of the UDF, and Kovoor Kunjumon’s RSP, the latest entrant into the LDF fold. If the Kerala Congress (Joseph) group decides to leave the UDF, it will make the seating-sharing exercise tougher for the Left block.
The UDF is looking to divide the nine seats that fell vacant following the exit of JSS (4), CMP (3), and Kerala Congress-B (2), among the RSP and other claimers.
The Rajan Babu faction of the JSS has already split into two and he is reportedly returning to the K. R. Gouri Amma camp. So, the UDF leadership is hoping to solve the issue by giving seat to K. K. Shaju. If an additional seat is allotted to the CMP, there will be six vacant seats remaining.
The RSP, which had been contesting from Aruvikkara, Chavara, Iravipuram and Kunnathur, as an ally of the LDF, is pushing hard to get at least four seats. Since Aruvikkara is a sitting seat of the Congress, the party is demanding another seat in Thiruvananthapuram or Kollam as a quid pro quo. It is learnt that the RSP is staking claim to eight seats, citing that the merger of two factions has further strengthened the party.
The Socialist Janata has decided to turn down the Mattannur, Elathur and Nemom seats where the party lost in the 2011 elections. Instead, they are seeking the Vamanapuram/Kovalam, Kayamkulam and Poonjar seats besides one seat each in Thrissur and Ernakulam districts, saying that it is of no use if the party stands no chance in half of the total six or seven seats allotted to it.
They also remind the UDF leaders of the sacrifice they made in 2011 by handing over the Nenmara seat to M. V. Raghavan.
On the other hand, the LDF, which was looking to divide the seats previously held by the RSP among the new partners, will have to allot one to Kovoor Kunjumon, who was reportedly forced by the CPM leadership to leave the UDF.
As per the instructions of the central leadership, one seat, probably in Kollam, will be set apart for the Forward Block. Though the two factions of the CMP paid no heed to the advice to merge, the party is expected to be given one or two winnable seats whereas K. R. Gouri Amma’s nominee will get one seat allocated to JSS.
Both Balakrishna Pillai and Ganesh Kumar have expressed their desire to contest. It will not be easy to ignore P. C. George in Poonjar, though the CPM local leaders are vehemently opposing the move to allot seats to the maverick leader.
The list of ambitious LDF allies is too long: The Indian National League (INL), which was given three seats in 2011, National Secular conference of P. T. A. Rahim, CPI (ML), and the two other factions of the RSP.
If the parties like Janata Dal (Secular), NCP and Congress (S), which are part of the Left block, ask for more seats, the leadership would have to express their helplessness by citing the demands put forth by these informal allies.
And importantly, if the CPI, the second largest party in the LDF, which contested 27 seats in 2011, seeks more seats, the CPM is expected to turn down the demand by saying that even Muslim League, the second biggest ally of the UDF, is allotted only 24 seats. The CPI can argue that the Congress contests only 82 seats while the CPM’s share is 93 in the alliance.
The Congress has made it clear that its quota could not be reduced under any circumstance, but the CPM will be forced to accede to the demands of the LDF’s informal partners.
The seat-sharing procedure was simple and smooth for the BJP in 2011, when the party contested 139 out of the 140 total seats and handed the remaining seat to the Janata Dal (U). The Dal is now an ally of the UDF. The only issue bothering the BJP is the indecisive stance adopted by Vellappally Natesan’s Bharath Jana Dharma Sena.
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