Oil prices soared and shares sank in frantic trading on Monday as the risk of a U.S. and European ban on Russian product and delays in Iranian talks triggered what was shaping up as a major stagflationary shock for world markets.
Indian shares closed lower on Monday for a fourth consecutive session and the rupee settled at near record lows, with investors on edge over worries the spike in global oil prices would lead to higher domestic inflation.
The Indian rupee fell to a record low at Rs 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05% weaker at 76.96.
The euro extended its slide, hitting parity against the safe-haven Swiss franc, and commodities of all stripes were on the rise as the Russian-Ukraine conflict showed no sign of cooling.
Russia calls the campaign it launched on Feb. 24 a "special military operation", saying it has no plans to occupy Ukraine.
Having surged 18% in wild early action, Brent was last quoted $9.95 higher at $128.06, while U.S. crude rose $8.35 to $124.03.
That jump will act as a tax on consumers and the potential blow to global economic growth saw S&P 500 stock futures drop 1.3%, while Nasdaq futures shed 1.7%. U.S. 10-year bond yields also dropped to their lowest since early January.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures dived 3.0% and FTSE futures 2.7%.
Japan's Nikkei sank 3.4% to a 15-month low, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 2.4%. Chinese blue chips shed 2.3% amid a sea of red across Asian markets.
Having climbed 21% last week, Brent crude was further energised by the risk of a ban of Russian oil by the United States and Europe.
"If the West cuts off most of Russia's energy exports it would be a major shock to global markets," said BofA chief economist Ethan Harris.
He estimates the loss of Russia's 5 million barrels could see oil prices double to $200 a barrel and lower economic growth globally.
And it is not just oil, with commodity prices having their strongest start to any year since 1915, says BofA. Among the many movers last week, nickel rose 19%, aluminium 15%, zinc 12%, and copper 8%, while wheat futures surged 60% and corn 15%.
That will only add to the global inflationary pulse with U.S. consumer price data this week expected to show annual growth at a stratospheric 7.9%, and the core measure at 6.4%.
All of which complicates the policy picture for the European Central Bank when it meets this week.
"Given the potential for stagflation is very real, the ECB is likely to maintain maximum flexibility with its asset purchase programme at 20 billion euros through Q2 and potentially beyond, thus effectively pushing out the timing of rate hikes," said Tapas Strickland, an economist at NAB.
"Higher CPI forecasts, though, mean rate hikes will be needed on the horizon."
Euro overwhelmed
The near-term prospect of a more dovish ECB combined with safe-haven flows to drive German 10-year bond yields down a huge 32 basis points last week. U.S. 10-year yields were down at 1.69%, having already dropped 23 basis points last week.
Fed fund futures were also gaining as the market priced in a slower pace of rate rises from the Federal Reserve this year, though a March hike is still seen as a done deal.
With the outlook for European growth darkening, the single currency took a beating and fell 3% last week to its lowest since mid-2020. It was last down 0.5% at $1.0872 and in danger of testing its 2020 trough around $1.0635.
The euro was also tumbling against the Swiss franc to break under 1.0000 for the first time since early 2015 and raising the spectre of possible intervention by the Swiss central bank.
The dollar was broadly firmer, supported in part by a strong payrolls report that only reaffirmed market expectations for a Fed hike this month. The dollar index was last at 99.134 having climbed 2.3% last week.
"Events in the Ukraine are increasingly overwhelming the euro," said Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy a Westpac.
"With safe-haven flows likely to continue for sometime yet and Fed officials eager to press on with their policy normalisation plans, 100+ for (the dollar index) is just a matter of time."
Gold benefited from its status as one of the oldest of safe harbours and was last up 1.1% at $1,991 an ounce.
Indian shares post losses on 4th consecutive day
The blue-chip NSE Nifty 50 index fell 2.35% to 15,863.15 at close and the S&P BSE Sensex dropped 2.74% to 52,842.75. Earlier in the session, both the indexes had fallen over 3%.
The Indian rupee fell to a record low at 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05% weaker at 76.96. The benchmark 10-year bond yield rose to 6.891% from the previous close of 6.813%.
Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 on Monday, after the U.S. and European allies explored a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the potential return of Iranian crude to global markets increased supply fears.
India imports over two-thirds of its oil requirements, and higher prices push up the country's trade and current account deficit while also hurting the rupee and fuelling imported inflation.
"Perception that a lot of foreign investors will have is emerging markets like India carry an additional risk factor in terms of all these macro dynamics playing out and, as a safety measure, there is a move towards the dollar," said Mayuresh Joshi, head of equity research at William O'Neil & Co, India.
Meanwhile, foreign investors have sold close to $1 billion of financials in the last two weeks and close to $2.5 billion year-to-date, Macquarie wrote in a note.
On the Nifty, banks, financial services firms, private sector banks and auto stocks were among the top losers, dropping over 4% each.
The Nifty metals index closed 2.1% higher, with Coal India and aluminium producer Hindalco Industries gaining 4.3% and 6.2%, respectively. Oil and gas explorer ONGC, the top gainer on the Nifty 50, closed 13.1% higher.
