With each passing day towards the March 29 deadline, Brexit continues to spawn chaos and confusion.
Britain’s House of Commons went through four consecutive polls in three days last week, with all getting set for another poll tomorrow. After that British Premier Theresa May will have to face the European Union Summit to be held at Brussels.
The chances are quite high for May to get isolated at the Brussels Summit to be held on Thursday and Friday. She might have to beg before the EU to work out a viable solution for the Brexit imbroglio, while the EU is letting out strong indications of getting fed up with the whole British drama. They are demanding Britain to make a choice and take a stand immediately. And in case the EU refuses to give an extension, whether long or short, it will be nothing but political chaos that would await Britain after March 29, the previously planned date of Britain leaving the EU.
The beginning
Brexit’s timeline was fraught with unprecedented events that offset every common logic. The ball was set in motion in 2015 by the then Prime Minister David Cameron’s announcement promising a referendum on Brexit or, Britain’s Exit from the European Union, if he returned to power again. It was seen as a ploy to garner the support of the nationalists.
Cameron won the polls, and the United Kingdom European Union Referendum was conducted on 23 June 2016. The referendum, however, turned out to be in support of Britain’s exit from the EU, providing the first one of the shockers not only to Cameron, who ordered the referendum hoping that the British would vote against it, but to the entire world. Not only Cameron, but the political leadership of Britain, as well as the world, had believed that the public would not accept the notion of Brexit. But that was not to be so. Brexit won by a narrow margin with just 51.9 % of the votes.
Within hours of the results of the referendum coming out, Cameron resigned. He had voted against Brexit and had campaigned for Britain continuing within the EU and the resignation was based on ethical grounds. After Cameron’s exit, Andrea Leadsom, Conservative leader who had actively campaigned for Brexit, was widely believed to become the prime minister. She had claims on all ethical grounds as well.
However, a mere slip of tongue forced Leadsom out of the fray for Prime Ministership. Her comment that being a mom increased her chances of functioning better in the Prime Minister’s post than the other content, Theresa May. The Mays are childless. Leadsom had to face public ire for her insensitive and personal comment, and naturally, she left the contest, paving for the Theresa May’s rise to power.
May, who was Home Secretary in Cameron’s Cabinet, had adopted an anti-Brexit stand. If Cameron had resigned from the post citing moral grounds as he had opposed the exit, the same situation was applicable to May as well. It is widely believed that Cameron chose to step out not on any grounds of morality, but being intimidated by the complications that would arise out of Brexit. He might have realised that any exit from the EU would never have been possible without causing some serious damage to the political and economic structure of Britain. It is almost like an amputation.
As the date of March 29, 2019 was set for Britain’s exit from EU, May started working hard on drawing up the Brexit deal that would ease the pains of the exit. Marathon discussions with EU leadership as well as with the British political leadership followed. But nothing seemed to be working out. Close on the heels of the Brexit deal getting finalised in November, 2018 Dominic Raab resigned as Brexit Secretary, in effect declaring his lack of faith in the deal prepared by himself.
With this resignation, May took over the complete responsibility of the Brexit deal, without replacing the resigned minister. She appointed only a deputy. Parliament voted down the deal in January, 2019 with a majority of 230 votes (432 -202). The majority was higher than the votes received for the deal. And 118 MPs from May’s own party, the Conservatives voted against the deal. However, May held on without succumbing to the pressure of having to resign on the grounds of moral responsibility following the steps of her predecessor Cameron.
The renewed Brexit deal was presented at the Parliament last Sunday, which was also voted out with a margin of 149 votes. This time, 75 MPs from the Conservatives turned against May. The Parliament also voted out the no-deal Brexit. Then, the option of a second referendum came up before the Parliament, which was also defeated. The Parliament had given only the permission to seek an extension for the date of Brexit from this March 29.
How did Brexit turn into such a tough deal? The reality is the political leadership of Britain does not want the Brexit. The majority in Britain’s political leadership believes in a broader vision of the world with an open market and perspectives that would provide new hope for the world. Even the referendum was conducted with the strong faith that it will be ruled out. Then, why Brexit won the referendum? Two major reasons are highlighted – there was a growing grumble among the majority of the public regarding the increasing presence of people from other European countries flooding Britain under the EU. The British public was complaining that people from other EU countries were exploiting the benefits given in the country. People coming from Asian countries usually obtain permission for residence and later the citizenship only after going through strict procedures. They also pay a higher rate of tax. However, citizens from other European countries had no such restrictions or higher tax rates, but they were still eligible for all benefits given in Britain to its citizens.
Though the urban areas of Britain were generally against Brexit, there was a pro-Brexit stance in the rural areas. The political leadership did not take it too seriously and that proved to be costly.
May be, the only way out of the entanglement at present would be to get an infinite extension. However, Theresa May might not be in agreement with this option and she is going ahead with placing her 3rd Brexit deal before the Parliament. If that too gets voted out, creating a hat-trick failure for May, then she would be left with only one option – that of resignation to save the face. The Opposition is already talking about a No-Confidence motion in the House of Commons. It remains to be seen whether Britain would move towards another Prime Minister from the Conservatives replacing May or an indefinite extension for the Brexit.
How far goes the chances for a second referendum in case no one wants the Brexit? Even that move was voted out in the British Parliament. Two reasons could be found for this – the theoretical as well as political reasons.
Theoretical Reason: Referendum is not something that can be done at random. The public has expressed their opinion. Just because the political leadership is not happy with the result, another referendum cannot be imposed upon the public. The political leadership cannot go on conducting a referendum till the result they want is obtained.
Political Reason: What is the second referendum also yields the same result? Not only that, there are demands that in case a second referendum is conducted, it should be of a mandatory nature.
If that becomes the case, the political leadership will lose even the remaining control over Brexit. (The referendum of 2016 was not mandatory, but only advisory.)