US ELECTION

Trump or Harris? Who will have the last laugh?

Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? Who will lead the US over the next four years? Waiting for an answer will be over in a few hours. The US presidential polls will commence between 7 and 8 am local time. The counting will begin immediately, and the trend will likely be known by midnight.

However, the dead heat in several states might delay the announcement of the final result. Typically, television channels will declare the result based on the trends. The official announcement will come later.

Both major parties, the Republican and Democratic, normally hold watch parties on the night of polling. Thousands of supporters will converge at these parties, and based on clear trends, the candidates will declare either victory or concede defeat at the watch party. Poll observers are now keenly watching the watch parties. However, Trump did not concede defeat in 2020 — he has yet to accept Joe Biden's victory. Trump's stand is not clear this time. Poll observers are keenly watching the parties.

Has the US firmed up its mind on who to support? The answer is both yes and no. More than seven-and-a-half voters have already voted using the early voting facility. They number more than 40 per cent of the voters who had used their franchise in 2020. Unlike back home, there is no grand finale for the poll campaign or silent campaign in the US. The parties could campaign till the polling begins.

A voter's political affiliation could be recorded when s/he registers herself/himself in the US electoral roll. They could even record as "independent". In short, the political party that the voters support is already in the public domain, and firms build apps based on the available information. While approaching the voter during the campaign, political parties are already aware of her/his affiliation.

Political parties prefer visiting the homes of their supporters since they feel it is unproductive to visit a rival supporter. The campaigners carry publicity materials with them and discuss with the voter(s), highlighting what the rival party had not done.

Unlike in India, the home visits are not short. If the campaigners feel the voter(s) are in two minds, they will visit the home again to win over the voter(s).

Physical letters play an important role in the US polls, even in the age of electronic mail and messages. Party workers write letters to the voters as part of the campaign. Other campaign materials, too, are sent by post. The materials of rival parties get dishonourable treatment as they are dumped straight into the dustbin.

Graffiti and posters with the face of beaming candidates are not seen in the US. However, the names of the presidential candidates and their running mates are seen on roadside advertisement display boards. They carry only names like Harris, Walz, Trump, and Vance.

Typically, the elderly campaigners write letters while youngsters focus more on holding rallies. The real celebration is with placards, music, and boisterous crowds. People standing with placards promoting candidates, too, can be seen. Once the polling is over, the campaign materials will be cleared.

Taught to respect Indian heritage, says Harris
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris said her mother and sister taught her to respect her Indian heritage. "Nearly every other year, we would go to India for Diwali. We would spend time with our grandparents, our uncles, and our chitthis," she wrote in an online publication. "As Vice President, it has been my honour to host Diwali celebrations in my home - the Vice President's Residence," she said.

"Not only to celebrate the holiday, but to celebrate the rich history, culture, and heritage of the South Asian American diaspora, which is bound together by a shared sense of possibility and belief in the promise of America," Harris added. Harris's note was in response to Trump's allegation that she has been ignoring Hindus.

Meanwhile, Harris sprang a surprise by making a cameo on Saturday Night Live, a US late-night sketch comedy variety show, along with actor Maya Rudolph, who has reprised the character of the vice president numerous times.

Dead heat in swing states
Opinion polls predicted a neck-and-neck contest in the unpredictable seven swing states. While the New York Times - Siena College final set of polls predicted Democrat Kamala Harris to have an edge in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, it said Republican Donald Trump is having a narrow lead in Arizona. The survey found both Harris and Trump in a tight contest in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Both candidates have their final round of campaign focusing on the swing states. While Harris focused on Michigan yesterday, Trump toured Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.

The polls
The US presidential election 2024 is witnessing a tight contest with different pre-poll surveys producing mixed results. Besides the voters' support, the candidates should win a majority of electoral votes to win the US polls.

In the US, votes are cast for president on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November every four years. The candidate winning the majority votes in the states will win the entire electoral votes of the corresponding state. However, Maine and Nebraska do not have a winner-take-all policy.

Electoral votes comprise two votes for senators from the state and a number of votes equal to the number of its Congressional districts. Electoral votes are allocated based on the Census. It comprises the votes from all 50 states and three votes from the District of Columbia, where Washington is located. The electoral collage has 538 votes. A candidate should get 270 electoral votes for winning a simple majority.

In case none of the candidates get the simple majority, the House of Representatives will elect one candidate from the top three as the president. The House of Representatives has thus elected the US president in 1800 and 1824. If no vice-presidential candidate got the majority, the Senate will elect one from the top two, as it did in 1836.

In 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016, presidential candidates who won the majority failed to win enough electoral votes.
2000
George W Bush (Republican party)
Votes: 5,04,56,002(48.4%)
Electoral votes: 271

Al Gore (Democratic party)
Votes: 5,09,99,897 (48.4%)
Electoral votes: 266

2016
Donald Trump (Republican party)
Votes: 6,29,84,828 (46.09%)
Electoral votes: 304
Hillary Clinton (Democratic party)
6,58,44,610 (48.18%)
Electoral vote: 227