Analysis | Palakkad punch leaves BJP in a shock
Congress's Rahul Mamkootathil defeated BJP's C Krishnakumar in Kerala's Palakkad assembly constituency.
Congress's Rahul Mamkootathil defeated BJP's C Krishnakumar in Kerala's Palakkad assembly constituency.
Congress's Rahul Mamkootathil defeated BJP's C Krishnakumar in Kerala's Palakkad assembly constituency.
It would take a while for the BJP to sense what actually hit them in Palakkad assembly constituency in Kerala. If the saffron party thought they had built unbreakable bastions in urban booths in Palakkad, for Congress's Rahul Mamkootathil it was a breeze. He raced through each round, much to the surprise of even the most optimistic Congress supporter.
BJP had to make it in the first seven rounds for a win. Votes in over 100 booths in the municipality area have always swung BJP's way but not on Saturday. The remaining booths came under panchayat areas where the contest has always been between the CPM-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF. Even Congress knew this. At the start of the counting, the leaders had said, partly in jest, 'Don't be carried away by what you see in the initial rounds'.
However, the trend was visible right from the first round. BJP candidate C Krishnakumar got off to a start with a lead of over 1000 votes. They expected the lead to pick up till the seventh round. Rahul Mamkootathil was within sniffing distance even in the first round in the urban booths. BJP camp turned glum. In the second round, Krishnakumar's cumulative lead shrank and shockingly, Rahul inched ahead with 3700 votes against 3441 polled by Krishnakumar.
BJP had expected a lead of nearly 3000 in the first two rounds and wanted it to cross 10,000 by the time counting was over for urban booths. Within an hour of counting, Krishnakumar's lead dropped below 1000. Then on, it was a tale of going from bad to worse. Even the LDF candidate P Sarin was making gains in the initial rounds, making it even more difficult for Krishnakumar.
In the fifth round, Krishnakumar clinched a sizeable lead of 2381, reigniting hopes in the saffron camp. It was short-lived as Rahul romped home in the remaining rounds. BJP never had anything to hope from rounds 8 to 14. In rounds 8, 9, 10 and 11, Rahul was untouchable, polling votes between 4200-6770.
By the end of counting, Rahul emerged with record majority pocketing 42 per cent of total polled votes which was higher than 38.06 per cent polled by Shafi Parambil in 2021.
BJP's E Sreedharan gave a tough fight for Congress's Shafi Parambil in 2021 mostly banking on the enormous share of votes he gained from municipality booths. Sreedharan had taken a lead of 6239 votes in Palakkad municipality booths. The writing on the wall was almost clear when the lead had marginally dipped in urban wards in Palakkad during the Lok Sabha elections in 2024. BJP's lead was just 497 in municipality booths during the general elections. Going by the bypoll results, it seems the vote share of the BJP in urban wards had further dropped. BJP will have to answer several questions to see how a stronghold slid away under their watch. BJP candidate C Krishnakumar has said that the results would be analyzed ahead of local body polls in Kerala.