Kottayam: In the Puthuppally byelection, the CPM's alibi for a massive defeat is the drop in BJP's votes. The defence is that their candidate Jaick C Thomas lost because the BJP sided with the Congress to help Chandy Oommen win.
It's true that the BJP lost half of the votes it had polled in the previous assembly election in 2021. It's also rationale to think that a sizeable chunk of those votes went to Chandy, considering his father, the late Oommen Chandy, used to have a bonding with people across party lines.
However, this possible shift of BJP votes into the UDF side alone will not make CPM's defence strong enough. More than the fall in the saffron votes, the Marxist party will have to enquire and explain how it lost nearly 12,000 votes compared to the 2021 elections.
In the 2021 elections, which was Jaick's second contest against Oommen Chandy, the Left front had polled 54,328 votes. LDF's tally was 44,505 in 2016 in Jaick's maiden election. With the surge of 9,823 votes in 2021 Jaick had managed to shock the UDF camp by bringing down Oommen Chandy's winning margin to 9,044 votes from 27,092 in 2016.
From 54,328 in 2021, Jaick's vote tally came down to 42,425 in the 2023 bypoll which means the Left front has suffered a loss of 11,903 votes in Puthuppally. This means only one thing: There was a massive erosion of votes from the Left corner. The LDF reportedly has a core vote base of a little over 40,000 votes in Puthuppally.
The latest drop happened across the constituency as Chandy maintained lead in all eight panchayats, including Jaick’s home turf, Manarcaud.
The possible reasons for the drop in the LDF’s votes include pro-Oommen Chandy sentiments in the wake of the Congress leader’s death, an anti-incumbency trend, rethinking by a section of Jacobite church members and a suspected ditch by Kerala Congress (M), an LDF ally.
It was expected that a significant section of voters, especially women cutting across party lines, would vote for Chandy Oommen this time as a mark of their love and gratitude to Oommen Chandy. It seems to have happened.
The Jacobite votes
It is widely believed and acknowledged by both the UDF and LDF camps that a major reason behind the drop in Oommen Chandy’s vote base in 2021 was the open stand taken by a section of the Jacobite Church against him.
During the 2020 local body polls and 2021 Assembly elections, the Jacobites in Puthuppally were lured to the LDF camp in the hope that the government would pass the Church Bill that would restore to their possession churches they had lost to the Orthodox faction after the 2017 Supreme Court verdict.
The Jacobites felt betrayed as the Bill did not materialise. This anti-government sentiment among Jacobites, especially in a Jacobite territory like Manarcaud panchayat, played a significant role in the fall in Jaick’s votes. In Jaick’s Manarcaud panchayat, LDF had a lead of 1,213 votes in 2021. This time, Chandy gained a lead of 2,515 votes over Jaick in the sixth round of counting wherein most of the votes polled in Manarcaud were counted.
Role of Kerala Congress(M)
The LDF’s 2021 surge in Puthuppally happened at a time when the Kerala Congress (M) joined it after severing ties with the Congress-led UDF. Ayarkunnam and Akalakkunnam are two panchayats believed to be regions where the Jose K Mani-led Catholic-dominated party is influential. Akalakkunnam even has a KC(M) panchayat president.
In Ayarkunnam, UDF’s lead was only 1,293 votes in 2021 as against 3,689 in 2016. In Akalakkunnam, Oommen Chandy’s lead stood at 1,818 in 2021 (5,416 votes in 2016). In both these panchayats, Chandy Oommen could gain leads surpassing his father’s 2021 figures this time.
In Ayarkunnam alone, the UDF garnered a lead of 5,487 votes this time. This, despite KC(M) leaders playing an active role in the LDF campaign for Jaick.
It looks like the Pala-based KC(M) will have a tough time explaining its vote leak when the LDF meets next time.
