An untrained eye will miss the poll fervour in Manjeswaram. Everything looks normal here. Election hoardings and graffitis are hard to notice. Poll rallies to show strength are few and far between. But beneath the veneer of calmness, hectic political parleys and secret campaigns with communal undertones are going on in full swing in this northernmost assembly constituency in Kerala.
Such election campaigns are not new to Manjeswaram - 30km north of district headquarters of Kasaragod - that shares multiple borders with Karnataka. But the intensity is severe this time because the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - which heads the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) - has made its intentions clear to win the seat while the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the second largest outfit in the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), has vowed to maintain its stranglehold over the constituency.
Ever since the BJP decided to field party’s State president K Surendran from Manjeshwar, top leaders from Karnataka have been flocking to the constituency to formulate strategies to consolidate Hindu votes.
The party has since been relying heavily on visiting Hindu households and consistently exhorting them the need to vote for BJP.
The subtle strategy to unite Hindu votes may increase BJP’s vote share, but it may not help the party win the seat because Muslim votes appear to be consolidating in favour of IUML candidate AKM Ashraf.
Muslims form 53 per cent of the electorate in Manjeswaram. Their political allegiance is divided among IUML, Congress and Communist Party of India (Marxist). Ashraf’s winnability may even attract non-BJP votes from Hindu and Christian communities.
Forty-five per cent of the electorate are Hindus while the remaining two per cent are Christians.
In such a scenario, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) candidate V V Rameshan will bag only the traditional CPM votes and may finish third behind UDF and NDA.
BJP’s sour grapes
Manjeswaram has elected representatives of four major political parties - Congress, CPI, CPM and IUML - and two independent candidates, but it never favoured BJP, which finished runners-up in seven consecutive elections.
The saffron party came close to winning the seat in 2016 when Surendran, who fought against P B Abdul Razak, lost by a narrow margin of 89 votes. Surendran had questioned the verdict in the High Court, but he withdrew the case after Razak’s demise in 2018. A by-election ensued in 2019. IUML’s M C Kamaruddhin won the poll, defeating BJP’s Ravisha Tantri by 7,923 votes.
This is Surendran’s third attempt to change his party’s fortunes in Manjeswaram (He debuted in 2011). He is also trying his luck from Konni in Pathanamthitta district in this Assembly election.
Leaders of the party’s eight panchayat units have elaborated various means to consolidate Hindu votes in Surendran’s favour.
“We are not focussing on splashy electioneering anymore. We are now personally meeting Hindu voters and informing them about electing a BJP representative,” said Rajesh, BJP’s Manjeswaram gram panchayat unit president. He hopes the strategy will considerably reduce UDF’s 2,903-vote lead (in the 2019 assembly bypoll) over NDA in the panchayat.
Rajesh’s counterpart in Vorkady gram panchayat, Chandrashekara Shetty said they are urging Hindu voters from Congress and CPM to give Surendran a chance this time. “We have convinced many of them about the need to defeat IUML,” he said.
UDF had got a 578-vote lead over NDA in the assembly bypoll in 2019 in Vorkady gram panchayat.
The party’s gram panchayat unit president in Meenja gram panchayat Ranjith said they are reaching out to Hindu voters. “Muslims will vote only for IUML. That is why we are reaching out to Hindus in Congress and CPM and convince them about the need to elect the BJP candidate.”
Meenja is an NDA stronghold and it always maintained a comfortable 1000-vote lead over UDF in all the previous Assembly elections. The lead was 1,078 in the 2019 bypoll.
Lokesh, who heads BJP’s Paivalike panchayat committee, says consolidation of Hindu votes will ensure Surendran’s victory. “Surendran’s 89-vote loss is still fresh in the minds of all Hindus. We will change history this time,” he said.
NDA took a 1998-vote lead over UDF in Paivalike in the 2019 assembly by poll.
The party adopted the same strategy in Kumbla, Enmakaje, Puthige and Mangalpady gram panchayats.
In Kumbla, UDF took an unassailable lead of 3,676 votes over NDA in the 2019 by poll.
NDA had a 434-vote advantage over UDF in Puthige, and 2288-vote lead in Enmakaje in the 2019 bypoll. UDF had a 6,830-vote lead over NDA in the bypoll in Mangalpady gram panchayat.
Result: Muslim vote consolidation
Local IUML leaders too confirmed that Muslim vote consolidation will definitely happen in the wake of BJP’s secret campaign.
The BJP plan has apparently come as a blessing in disguise for IUML which suffered severe setbacks in local body polls because of factional fighting.
The party’s performance was below par in its strongholds of Manjeswaram, Vorkady, Meenja, Paivalige and Puthige.
“BJP’s plan to win Manjeswaram has brought all Muslims together. This will ensure IUML candidate Ashraf’s win” said Saifulla, president of the Manjeswram unit of the IUML.
His counterparts in other seven panchayats agreed.
“Muslims are afraid of BJP growth. That is the reason for this Muslim vote consolidation,” said Zulfiquer Ali, general secretary of the IUML unit in Paivalike.
UDF’s steady growth
An analysis of vote share in the Assembly elections in 2016 and 2019 (bypoll) showed that only UDF could register positive growth in all eight gram panchayats in three years.
The biggest growth of 1,630 votes was registered in Mangalpady, followed by Vorkady (1597), Kumbla (1139), Meenja (1133), Manjeswaram (977), Puthige (974), Paivalike (688) and Enmakaje (241) gram panchayats. (This is the difference of votes garnered in 2019 and 2016)
NDA registered negative growth in Manjeswaram (It got 157 votes less than it polled in 2016) and Enmakaje (-37). It showed positive growth in other six gram panchayats. [Puthige 908, Meenja 438, Vorkady 376, Paivalike 205, Kumbla 29, Mangalpady 4].
LDF registered negative growth in all gram panchayats, except Puthige (728) and Enmakaje (5).
Linguistic minority representative
Ashraf hails from Manjeswaram and claims to be representing linguistic minorities and hopes to win votes cutting across religious lines.
UDF is fielding a local candidate for the first time.
Tulu and Kannadiga voters form close to half of the electorate here.
Issues of Tulu and Kannada speakers, such as lack of adequate educational institutions and quality teaching staff, often figure prominently in the Manjeswaram assembly election.
The other two candidates are not from Manjeswaram.
Support of Sunni factions
Indications are that all sections of Muslims, including two dominant factions of Sunnis, may vote to avoid a 2016-like scenario.
Majority of Mulsims in Manjeswaram are Sunnis, and they belong to either AP or EK faction.
The Sunnis had split in 1989 following differences between its two main leaders, the late EK Aboobacker Musliyar and AP Aboobacker Musliyar. The splinter groups came to be known as EK and AP factions. Both factions appear to be favouring Ashraf this time. In 2016, the AP Sunni faction had ditched Abdul Razak and the split had helped K Surendran to finish a close second then.
Jewellery scam, a disgrace for League
The arrest of present Manjeswaram MLA M C Kamaruddin in the Rs 130-crore Fashion Jewellery scam has put the Muslim League in huge trouble.
Kamaruddin and his business partner Pookoya Thangal had duped Rs 130 crore from 749 depositors, a majority of them Muslim League workers, promising to set up a chain of gold jewellery outlets in Kasaragod, Kannur and Kozhikode districts. Kamaruddin is out on bail now after spending 96 days in jail on various charges. The investigation is still on.
Kamaruddin embarrassed the UDF leadership when he accompanied Ashraf to file the nomination.
This has invited the wrath of League workers across the district.
“The League leadership should explain the reasons for allowing him to accompany Ashraf to file nomination. It is a disgrace. We will campaign against the League in Manjeswaram,” said Khalid, who lost money in the Fashion Jewellery scam.
An eye on the LDF vote
The LDF has a vote share of 35,000 to 42,000 in Manjeswaram constituency, and both UDF and NDA have been eyeing a share of votes from the LDF kitty.
Data suggests that the victory margin narrows when the LDF garners more votes. For example, in 2016 (when Razak won by 89 votes), LDF candidate CH Kunhambu got 42,565 votes. In contrast, UDF defeated BJP by 5,828 votes when LDF collected 35,067 votes.
UDF and NDA leaders alleged that LDF fielded a weak candidate and this would result in vote transfer to other parties.
But LDF candidate V V Rameshan countered the allegations. “We are here to win. We are not dividing people based on religion. All secular-minded people will vote for us,” he said.
BJP candidate K Surendran said he will win by over 10,000 votes. “We don’t have any doubts about it. Manjeswaram will elect me this time.”
IUML nominee AKM Ashraf said Manjeswaram is a UDF bastion and there is no doubt about his victory. “Manjeswaram is a UDF bastion. We will continue to win it,” he said.
