Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala is unlikely to witness a huge spurt in COVID-19 cases, if the state is able to control the number of infections due to direct contact or community transmission, experts have pointed out. The maximum number of patients is pegged to be at 6,000 in the coming days, despite the huge inflow of returnees.
The experts arrived at this conclusion based on the calculations done on the number of infected among the returnees from abroad and other states in the third wave of COVID-19 in Kerala. However, this figure could change if there is a spurt in the cases abroad or in other states.
The numbers
The number of cases in Kerala is at 794. Of the total number of the infected, 401 are foreign returnees (50.5 per cent). And 167 (21 per cent) from other states, while 226 people (28 per cent) had contracted the illness through contact. This analysis is based on the data with the health department.
About 8,924 people returned to state from abroad after lockdown curbs were eased. Among these, 120 people were found to be infected, i.e., just 1.34 per cent of the total foreign returnees.
Therefore, if 1 lakh people return from abroad, then 1,340 people are likely to be infected. If all the 4-lakh people, who have registered to return, arrive in the state, then the number of infected could rise over 5,000.
After restrictions were eased, 89,716 people returned to Kerala from other states. Only 206 were infected, i.e., just 0.22 per cent. Therefore, even if 2 lakh people return from other states, then 440 are likely to be infected.
Kerala reported the biggest spike in COVID-19 cases in a single day as 62 people tested positive on Saturday. There are seven healthcare workers among the infected.
The latest number of cases is 20 more than those tested positive the previous day.
A total of 91,084 people are under observation in various districts. Of these, 90,416 are under home-quarantine and 668 are in hospitals.
