A fall in fresh cases to four on Tuesday from two consecutive double-digit figures of 11 and 13 should normally have allowed Kerala to heave a huge sigh of relief. But the day's figure feels tentative, an underestimation, as it does not include 25 results, including the three in Idukki that were declared positive late on April 27 after Chief Minster Pinarayi Vijayan's sunset briefing.
“These 25 samples have been sent for re-testing,” Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said during his briefing in Thiruvananthapuram on Tuesday. “We need more clarity on these results,” he said.
Till now, the practice was to consider a person as infected once his or her sample tests positive. This is for the first time that a set of samples that had tested positive have been returned for a confirmatory test.
However, sources said all the 25 have been isolated in hospitals. Except for the three Idukki cases – a male nurse, a ward councillor and a sweeper in a hospital – the details of the 22 others are kept under wraps.
Ease in vigil
It also looks like there was a slight lowering of guard. It is said that individuals from whom samples were taken at random were not asked to go into quarantine. They went about their lives as usual and were shifted to hospitals only after they tested positive. The asymptomatic nature of these individuals could have induced the complacency. The male nurse and the ward councillor in Idukki, for instance, came into contact with innumerable and were still active even after their samples were taken.
If these 25 samples sent for re-confirmation turn up positive yet again, the government will have to explain why these individuals were not asked to observe strict quarantine after they were tested.
These samples were part of the random samples that were taken from high-risk groups like healthcare workers, those with high social risk like politicians and migrant workers. A positive result among these groups is seen as an indication of community transmission.
Already, two health workers – a nurse in Kottayam and an Asha worker in Kollam – were revealed to be virus carriers with no known source of infection.
Increasingly vague origins
With testing ramped up considerably, a spike in positive cases was expected on Tuesday. The Chief Minister, however, said there were just four fresh cases; three in Kannur and one in Kasaragod. He said two had come from foreign countries and two had contracted the infection from contact.
Tracing a fresh case to a foreign country is becoming increasingly untenable. Because even if they had arrived in Kerala on March 22, the day the international flights were grounded, they had tested negative 36 days after their return. There is a growing consensus that these late positives could have been infected after their return.
However, one positive case was picked up as part of the 'sentinel surveillance' done on high-risk groups like healthcare workers and police. The source of infection of this person, though the Chief Minister said it came from contact, has still not been ascertained.
Delaying the inevitable
Idukki and Kottayam districts that were showing a recent surge had no new cases on Tuesday. In fact, 240 samples were taken for testing from Idukki alone. The results of only less than 40 have been declared. A similar number has been taken from Kottayam, too, and most of the results are yet to be declared.
Though no fresh cases were reported in Idukki and Kottayam, the number of hospots within them have gone up. Besides the 11 it already has, Idukki has three new hotspots (Karunapuram, Munnar, and Edavetty panchayats). Kottayam, in addition to the eight already declared, gets two more (Melukavu panchayat and Changanasseery municipality).
The Chief Minister said 3101 samples were taken on April 27 and 2682 have turned up negative. The results of over 500 samples are awaited. Results of nearly 400 samples taken from high-risk groups are also pending.
Don't be surprised if fresh cases go up considerably in the coming days.
Other key points from CM's press meet:
• The lockdown exit strategy will be decided by May 3 after studying the situation in the state.
• People going to public places and markets should comply with social distancing norms even if curbs are eased.
• Break the Chain campaign is progressing successfully. Though wearing masks has become a habit, some are still flouting guidelines.
• Strict vigil will be observed at state borders. Those who want to enter the state will have to undergo medical checks.
• Govt is moving forward with plans to bring back NRKs from foreign countries. NORKA registration is progressing.
• Department secretaries to study the impact of COVID-19 in agriculture, industry, animal husbandry, IT, fisheries and tourism sectors. Based on their report, a financial package for reviving the economy will be announced.
