The results of the Lok Sabha election in Uttar Pradesh have come as an eye-opener for all parties and the people in general. Although now many people will claim they knew it all along, till the end of voting for the seventh phase, everyone – except for those committed party workers – preferred to play safe.
The final tally of 37 for the BJP and allies, and 43 for the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance comes as a vindication for the non-BJP bloc, a shock to BJP supporters and once again brings to the fore the unique position of UP in national politics. Even though the BJP has performed below its expectations in Maharashtra, West Bengal and Rajasthan, the UP figures are in sharp contrast to those in the adjoining states like Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Bihar and Jharkhand. It is as if UP stands out in its thorough rejection of the BJP, despite having a government in the state. The consolation for the BJP is that it retains the chance of forming a government at the Centre despite the loss of face.
The prize of 37 seats for the SP makes it the second party in the numbers tally of INDIA constituents and catapults Akhilesh Yadav to a position next to Rahul Gandhi in the bloc’s pecking order. Despite the big win, Akhilesh has to be content with sitting in the Opposition – he was sure to get a number two position if his alliance formed the government at the Centre. The consolation for him is that his stature rises several notches among all Opposition parties such as TMC, DMK and AAP.
No stronghold
Election results, it can be said, are an expression of people’s discontent or sympathy, but not always of support. People and politicians believed that UP had become a bastion of the BJP but the result has shattered this belief. The performance of the Yogi Adityanath government, despite the resounding victory in 2022 for its second term, will also be a subject of critical appraisal in the coming days, with the Yogi model of governance combining quick decision-making, crackdown on criminals and bulldozer action coming under the spotlight.
Also significant is the BJP’s loss in eastern Uttar Pradesh where it was believed that Yogi Adityanath and Prime Minister Narendra Modi exerted big influence from Gorakhpur and Varanasi, respectively. Added to this is the loss in Ayodhya which comes as a big setback. After all, the consecration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and the massive infrastructure push in the temple town are there for all to see. Yet, it failed to attract enough voters to ensure the BJP’s win.
Youth anger
Among the issues that have seemingly gone against the BJP, the disenchantment of youth can be termed as the most significant. Repeated disruptions and paper leaks of recruitment examinations have caused widespread resentment. The government of the day, needless to say, is to be blamed for this. Lack of job creation and rising unemployment opportunities have added to this angst.
The wrong choice of candidates in several places such as in Mohanlalganj, adjacent to Lucknow, and in Ayodhya, among other places, also dented BJP's fortunes. The disinterest shown by party workers and sympathisers in several cities and towns is also a major reason for the BJP supporters not coming out to cast their ballots.
What's brewing in BJP?
Another reason, details of which could unfold in the coming days, could be the disagreement within the party, and between the party and the government over several issues. It holds to reason that if there was no general resentment against the government, then something very deep and unseen could have led to the party’s poor performance. However, as of now, this lies within the realm of speculation.
The BJP had high hopes from issues such as the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, end to the appeasement policy, the improved law and order situation, no incidence of communal riots, rise in industrial investment, creation of massive infrastructure such as expressways, highways and airports, and better coordination with Central government on several issues. The result indicates that the Ram Mandir is an accepted part of the country’s cultural and religious space as much as any other place of pilgrimage; therefore, it is no longer an election issue. It was widely believed by BJP supporters and critics that had the election been announced immediately after the temple’s consecration, the BJP would have benefited from it.
In contrast, the Opposition campaign was centred on caste issues, and holding of caste census. It was reiterated by both Akhilesh and Rahul Gandhi, creating an impression of Opposition unity.
Questions over what the BJP government could do if it gets another term also agitated the people, especially the OBCs and Dalits. Allegations by Opposition parties that the next BJP government could tamper with the Constitution and the reservation matrix have found resonance with the people.
The entire campaign threw up some interesting trends such as the limited appeal of polarisation, and a return to caste politics when no other issue mattered. This is unlike the scenario in 2014 and 2019 when Modi’s persona had almost obliterated caste divisions and the majority community had voted solidly for him and the party. The campaign also suggested that there is no discernible anger against the present Modi government as the party did well in states not under its rule such as Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. The setback in Maharashtra is being attributed to the anger at splitting Shiv Sena and NCP, whereas in Rajasthan the infighting within the party is being blamed.
It also emerges that repeated mention of matters related to faith does not appear to have gone down well with the people. For long, Uttar Pradesh has been a laboratory for political experiments. Having 80 seats for the Lok Sabha gives the state a unique advantage in influencing government formation after every general election. This time, the BJP learnt it the hard way that the state’s huge influence can be so damaging if things do not go the way it was expected. In all likelihood, UP will not have the kind of influence at the Centre as it has been used to having.
