The Congress has all the reasons to be happy and optimistic going by the predictions based on the Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey held in five poll-bound states. The pre-poll survey results, aired by Manorama News on Saturday night, predict edge for the grand old party in three of the five states.
Its biggest gain, according to the survey, will be in Madhya Pradesh where the party is likely to win 120-130 seats in a 230-strong House. In the neighbouring Chhattisgarh, a back-to-back victory is predicted for the Congress.
The survey results predict a Congress surge in Telangana and Mizoram though the states are likely to throw up hung assemblies. The survey, however, does not bring good news to the Congress in Rajasthan. The BJP would wrest power in the desert state, the survey says.
A Madhya Pradesh win with a clear mandate, if it happens, will give a huge fillip to the Congress in its run-up to the 2024 general elections. The win in the saffron citadel after a long 20 years, barring a one-year Kamal Nath regime brought down by Jyotiraditya Scindia group, will be the biggest morale booster for the Congress well-wishers since the Karnataka victory earlier this year. A Congress government in the big state along with Karnataka would also mean better financial prospects for the party as it gears up to play all possible cards to prevent a Narendra Modi hat-trick at the Centre.
The Congress will also be able to find some solace for the predicted Rajasthan loss in the MP win.
The survey predicts an adverse swing may result in loss of seats for the Congress in Chhattisgarh with the party winning only 53-58 constituencies from the existing 68. Even if that happens, it has nothing to worry as it would well be retained in power in the tribal-dominated state. MP-Chhattisgarh win together would mean a Congress surge in the Hindi-Hindutva heartland which should force the BJP to some self -introspection ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
The survey predicted a massive swing in favour of the Congress in Telangana with the party set to win 52-58 seats. At present, it has 19 seats in a House of 119. The number nevertheless is not enough for the party to form its first government in the state carved out of Andhra Pradesh. A hung assembly would be something the Revanth Reddy-led Congress dread in the state provided its history of massive desertions. A Telangana surge even with a hung assembly would still be good news for Congress at the national scenario since the party has not been able to make inroads into regional party strongholds for long. The party can reasonably interpret a good show in the southern state as the signal of the wind turning in its favour in various parts of the country.
The predictions for Mizoram, the lone north-eastern state going to polls in this round, is pretty much similar to the Telangana scenario. The state will also witness anti-incumbency vote, giving trouble to ruling Mizo National Front-BJP alliance. As a result MNF's tally may dip to 11-15 from 27. The Congress is likely to improve its tally to the 12-16 range from 4 in a House of 40. Main Opposition party Zoram People's Movement may also increase its tally from the existing 8 to the 10-14 range.
The predictions overall suggest a Congress resurgence in the country which began with the Karnataka show. The biggest takeaway from the pre-poll survey is that the Congress has apparently shed itself of the image of being a losers’ camp, a tag it earned with a series of electoral defeats since the Modi wave of 2014.
