Kolkata: The saffron surge in West Bengal was not unexpected as the BJP had emerged as the principal opposition party to the ruling Trinamool.
But the rise in its fortunes triggers questions about Trinamool's existence.
The feeling now is that the BJP could even come to power in the 2021 assembly polls, or even earlier, by ousting the Mamata Banerjee-led government.
“The BJP’s rise is all set to bring structural changes in the state politics. Prevailing political narratives like secularism and welfare of poor were developed by the Left Front, while the Congress and Trinamool mostly followed the same,” political analyst Bimal Shankar Nanda said.
History could repeat, in other words.
Nanda was referring to the rout of the CPM in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, when the TMC made inroads. Eventually the Trinamool Congress swept to power in the state in 2011.
Amid apprehensions of losing seats in the Hindi heartland, the BJP made a strong pitch to woo voters in Bengal and other parts of Eastern India.
It also increased its vote share, riding on the rising popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, polarisation and exploiting issues like nationalism.
The BJP also got assistance from ‘turncoats’, or those who shifted loyalties to the saffron camp from Trinamool.
The BJP’s new narratives of nationalism and its campaign of ‘no appeasement of any particular community' clearly charmed the voters, analyst Bishwanath Chakraborty said.
“There has been a massive polarisation in Bengal and it would not be surprising if the BJP comes to power in 2021 or even before by ousting Trinamool government,” he said.
The violence in the last local body polls also triggered resentment against the ruling party.
Some policies of the Trinamool, like offering monetary help to Muslim clerics and special arrangements for the minorities in areas like education, have been given a ‘thumbs down’ by the voters.
“Such appeasement politics created doubts among Hindus on whether the state government is favouring Muslims more. Mamata, too, indirectly acknowledged her party’s appeasement policy towards the minority community”.
Nanda said she started chanting mantras during campaigns to woo Hindus.
“Moreover, a section of people also wanted the implementation of National Register of Citizens (NRC) as the number of illegal immigrants had grown in Bengal,” he said.
The party-wise vote share clearly shows that the Trinamool Congress suffered from the sharp drop in the Left Front’s vote share to below 10 per cent.
The Left Front vote share was over 29 per cent in 2014 and fell to about 22 per cent in 2016.
In 2014, the BJP, despite its weak organisational strength in the state, managed to increase its vote share to 17 per cent, which came down to around 10 per cent in 2016.
Analysts, however, said the BJP’s challenge would be to project a leader to match Mamata Banerjee in the 2021 Assembly elections.
According to them, Modi may have contributed to the BJP's surge now, but for the state polls, the BJP needs to find a good chief ministerial candidate.
Amit Shah had set a target of winning more than 23 parliamentary seats from Bengal.
Exit polls had indicated that the vote share of BJP in Bengal may have risen by 41 per cent.
The India Today exit polls predicted that the BJP will get 19 to 23 seats up from two in 2014.
If the results of the last four Bengal elections — two Lok Sabha (2009 and 2014) and two Assembly (2011 and 2016) — are taken into account, clear warning signs are emerging for the ruling Trinamool.
The BJP was not a force in 2009 and its policy was to back TMC against the Left Front.
The saffron party got 6.14 per cent in 2009 Lok Sabha poll, while TMC had 31.per cent 18 replacing Congress as the main opposition party in the state.
A decade later, in Assembly election of 2016, TMC polled 44.91 per cent, while CPM and the Left Front were at 19.75 and 25.69 respectively. That was a drop of 13 per cent for CPM and 22 per cent for the Left in seven years.
Moreover, in Assembly election of 2016, TMC polled 44.91 per cent, where the party managed to maintain its share and even increase it.
The Congress is oscillating between 10-12 per cent.
Meanwhile, the real gainer has been the BJP. The saffron share went up from 6.14 in 2009 to 17.02 in 2014, indicating that the party is growing in Bengal, coinciding with the Left's decline.
However, while the state clearly voted for Narendra Modi in 2014, it remained with Mamata Banerjee in 2016. Thus, BJP’s vote share dropped from 17.02 per cent in 2014 to 10.16 per cent in 2016 Assembly poll, while TMC’s share increased from 39.79 per cent to 44.91 per cent.
