Note: This is the second ground report from the Manjeswaram assembly constituency, which is witnessing a tough battle among the United Democratic Front, National Democratic Alliance and Left Democratic Front. Read the first story on how BJP’s strategy to consolidate Hindu votes will benefit Muslim League
The electoral fight for Manjeswaram has entered the crucial phase with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) reaching out to as many voters as possible. However, the fight mainly is between BJP and IUML.
The focus has now shifted to micro-level voter management.
Manjeswaram is crucial as state BJP chief K Surendran is making an all out attempt to win the constituency while the IUML candidate AKM Ashraf is busy devising strategies to retain the seat.
In this context, Onmanorama visits all the eight gram panchayats in the Assembly constituency and meets local leaders of BJP and UDF to understand their strategies.
Manjeswaram
On Monday, Rajesh was busy checking the voters’ list in Manjeswaram gram panchayat, sitting in the BJP’s election office in the town. A few minutes later, he asked his fellow party workers to visit a few houses nearby. “We could not visit those houses on Sunday. Please go and meet them now. All votes are crucial for us,” he said.
Rajesh is the president of BJP's Manjeswaram panchayat unit.
“We are not organising splashy election campaigns. We will visit Hindu voters and request them to vote for BJP. That is our strategy,” he said.
BJP has been maintaining consistent growth in the panchayat. In 2016, it got 8,160 votes. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, its vote share had gone down to 7899, but the vote share again went up and touched 8010 in the 2019 assembly byopoll (which was necessitated by the demise of sitting MLA P B Abdul Razak). “We will add 100 more votes to Surendran’s kitty this time,” he said.
At the IUML office, Saifulla, who heads the party in Manjeswaram panchayat, said AKM Ashraf will get 12,500 votes from his panchayat. “We will lead BJP by 4,000 votes. People are wary of BJP’s win. So there will be a consolidation of Muslim votes from all parties,” he said.
UDF got the highest number of votes - 11,208 - in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. “We will shatter that record,” he said.
Vorkady
BJP has been growing consistently in Vorkady. In the local body polls in 2020, the party increased its seats to five from three it had won five years ago. “We will try to get 7,000 votes for the party this time. We have enrolled 400 new voters,” said Chandrasekhara Shetty, the party’s unit president.
How is it going to get 7000 votes when the party tallied a maximum of 5,694 votes so far? “We will ensure consolidation of Hindu votes. Hindus from Congress and CPM will vote for BJP this time,” he said.
A few metres away in the IUML office, the party’s unit president Moosakunhi was leading a discussion on the campaign strategies.
IUML performed badly in the local body election, which cost UDF the power. “But we have buried those differences. We have enrolled 700 voters and will work hard to ensure a good lead for Ashraf.”
UDF’s best show was in the 2019 assembly bypoll when it tallied 6090 votes.
Meenja
BJP’s unit general secretary Ranjith said Hindu electorate from other parties will vote for Surendran out of necessity. “Muslim votes will go to only Muslims. So this time there will be a shift in Hindu votes,” he said. BJP is the largest party in Meenja, which enjoys more than 1000-vote lead over IUML. “We have enrolled 1,000 voters, including 200 who moved from Karnataka. Our lead will cross 1,500 this time,” he said.
UDF has not come to terms with the debacle in the local body election. Though the IUML won all the three seats it had contested, Congress could not win even a single seat. “We are lagging behind BJP in election work too,” confessed Muslim Youth League gram panchayat leader Siddique. However, he said UDF has enrolled 900 new voters, which will help reduce the gap with BJP.
Mangalpady
This is an IUML fortress where the party enjoys more than 6,800-vote lead over BJP. Party’s office secretary Hamza said the lead will increase to 7,500 with the addition of new voters. “Mangalpady will continue to be an IUML citadel,” he said.
BJP’s unit president Valsaraj said his party will get 500 votes more to its existing tally. “This will help us reduce the gap with UDF,” he said.
Paivalike
BJP’s unit president Lokesh says all the 14,031 Hindu votes in Paivalike will go to K Surendran this time. “That is our strategy to win the election. We will easily get CPM votes as their candidate is not strong. We have enrolled 700 new votes and it will give us a huge advantage,” he said.
Paivalike is a BJP stronghold and the party maintains a 2,000-vote lead over UDF. “This time our target is to garner 10,000 votes. It will ensure Surendran’s victory,” he said.
BJP’s best showing was in the assembly bypoll in 2019 when it garnered 8,326 votes. UDF tallied its best vote share of 6,847 in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
IUML’s unit general secretary Zulfiquer Ali Kayyar said UDF is aiming to reduce BJP’s lead. “We have enrolled 1,200 voters. A possible consolidation of Muslim votes may give us an edge,” he said
Kumbla
Sudhakar Kamat, unit president of the BJP in Kumbla, says his party will add 11,000 votes to Surendran’s kitty by an extensive house campaign. “We will exhort Hindu brothers the need to awaken and vote for BJP,” he said.
BJP’s highest tally was 8,788 which it collected during the 2019 assembly bypoll.
UDF at present enjoys a lead of 3,676 votes over BJP (based on assembly bypoll in 2019). “We have enrolled 1,500 new voters. We will widen the lead to 5,000,” said UDF mandalam secretary Arif.
Puthige
Puthige is a CPM stronghold, while BJP and UDF enjoy almost equal vote share. But BJP unit president Sunil Kumar claims his party has been making steady gains in the panchayat. “We had only one member in the panchayat council in 2015. Now we have four members. It is a huge growth,” he said and added that the vote share will increase further in the assembly polls. “Our tally will increase because of Hindu vote consolidation,” he said.
BJP's highest vote share was 4,208 in the 2019 assembly bypoll.
UDF panchayat president E K Muhammed says the coalition will win more votes. “UDF candidate Ashraf hails from Manjeswaram. He will get a lot of personal votes cutting across religions,” he said.
UDF had collected 4302 votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
Enmakaje
“BJP workers have not forgotten Surendran’s 89-vote defeat in 2016. So we are working hard to ensure his victory now. Hindu vote consolidation is the only way out,” said BJP’s Enmakaje unit president Satyashankar Bhat.
Enmakaje is a BJP stronghold where it has 8,144 votes. “We will make it 10,000 this time,” he said.
But UDF leader in Enmakaje Somashekhar said BJP’s ploy will not work. “Congress will try its level best to retain Hindu votes,” he said.
