Analysis | How next three weeks could set the pace for Kerala Blasters season

Mikael Stahre is up for his first big test as head coach of Kerala Blasters. The next three weeks should play a decisive part in how the Indian Super League season shapes up for the Swede and his team in yellow.

For the sixth season, the Blasters had the luxury of starting a campaign with consecutive home matches. Now, they embark on a treble of away fixtures: NorthEast United in Guwahati (Sept 29), Odisha FC in Bhubaneswar (Oct 3), and Mohammedan SC in Kolkata (Oct 20).

While teams perform better at home grounds, it is no secret that a successful football season depends on how well they perform in their travels. Teams fighting for titles (and knockouts) make it a habit to rack up points from away fixtures.

At home, backed by their loyal fanbase, arguably the best in the country, the Blasters have been impressive. Since their inception in 2014, the Blasters have been unbeaten in 73 per cent of matches played at home (two seasons played in neutral venues at Goa due to COVID-19 are excluded). But the story is different on away grounds. The Blasters have lost 50.5 per cent of their matches played on away grounds and managed to win only one in every four encounters outside the comfort of home.

When Blasters travelled well
Let us consider the Blasters' home-away records in the seasons they did well. In all seasons they made it to the playoffs, the Blasters maintained their enviable home record while showing a marked improvement in their win percentage on away grounds.

In 2016, the Blasters reached the final a second time. The highlight of the campaign was a brilliant 75% unbeaten away record, including a win percentage of 37.5 during the travels. Under Englishman Steve Coppell, the Blasters went four away games unbeaten in a row, including in three consecutive fixtures, from which they bagged 5 out of a possible 9 points.

In the two recent campaigns under Serbian Ivan Vukomanovic, the Blasters claimed playoff spots (excluding the 2021 campaign as it was played in a neutral venue at Goa due to COVID-19). Just as under Coppell, the Blasters did exceptionally well at home. Their unbeaten/win percentages at home for 2022-23 and 2023-24 stood at 100%/70% and 72.7%/54.5% respectively. During these campaigns, the Blasters also produced better win percentages away than their all-season average of under 25%. In 2022-23, they managed to win 27% of away games and improved it to 33% in 2023-24.

When Blasters struggled away
Now let us see how the Blasters did in away matches in the seasons they performed poorly. In 2015, the first time they underperformed, the Blasters won just 14% of matches away and their home win percentage was a lowly 28%. The Blasters had started the season under Peter Taylor and ended it with Terry Phelan assuming a caretaker role.

The 2018 season, managed by David James and later by Nelo Vingada, was disastrous for the Manjappada. They won a measly 11% of matches both home and away. Under Eelco Schattorie in 2019, the Blasters failed to improve their away record, winning just 11% of matches. Their home record wasn't rosy either; four draws and just two wins, as the playoffs remained elusive again.

In 2020, the first season played behind closed doors in Goa, due to COVID-19, the Blasters won just three of their 20 matches under freshly crowned I-League champion Kibu Vicuna.

The 2017 anomaly
In between, the 2017 season was an anomaly as the Blasters performed much better away than at home. Their win percentages away and home were 44% and 22% respectively. It is fascinating that the Blasters even managed to amass 7 points from a run of three away matches at one point in the season. But why did they fail to make the playoffs? The answer is simple, they had more draws, notably 39% of draws on away grounds. As a result, the Blasters missed out on the top four by just five points. They began the season under Rene Meulensteen, former assistant coach of Manchester United and ended it with David James as the interim boss.

Stahre and the Vicuna pattern

Stahre has conceded that it is "not super common" to have a run of three away matches. Not at least "in Europe", the Swede said in his pre-match press conference in Guwahati on the eve of the Blasters match against NorthEast United.

This pattern of two home matches followed by three away from the start of a campaign has only happened once before in all 11 seasons for the Blasters. The previous instance was in 2020-21, under freshly crowned I-League champion Kibu Vicuna. Incidentally, that season the ISL was played under a bio-bubble in Goa, due to COVID-19.

However, the matches were still categorised in the home-away format. The Blasters lost three of the first five matches and only managed two points. The campaign went downhill from there; Vicuna was gone by mid-February and the Blasters finished second from bottom.

Like Vicuna, Stahre too began his season with a loss. But the Blasters fans can rejoice as Stahre did not follow in Vicuna's path and drew his second match. He won it with a late flourish. "We take one game at a time," he said ahead of the NEUFC game. "We have to stay humble and keep up the momentum from our first win."